Grains Report - Tuesday, Sep. 23
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower as reports of weaker Russian and European prices are still around. Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 505, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday and the market remained in a trading range on the weekly charts. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week. Chart trends are mixed on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Harvest is increasing in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1124, 1112, and 1100 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday and trends are turning down as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand. The weekly charts showed higher prices due to the roll from September to December. Ideas are that futures have created a low as prices were able to rally on no news or bad news. There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong. Oats were lower.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 122,947 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 417, 414, and 411 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 307, 301, and 295 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower yesterday on no indications that China was changing its trade policies and on forecasts for a little rain to be seen in the Midwest this weekend. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size, but rains were reported over the weekend and more are forecast for this week that would help maintain size and moisture. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1002, 995, and 981 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and 1036 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 285.00, 289.00, and 293.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 4840, 4740, and 4680 October, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5170 October.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday with the price action in Chicago and despite strong export demand. Export demand is expected to be less down the road. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower with Chicago Soybeans. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4340, 4200, and 4130 December, with resistance at 4430, 4480, and 4530 December.
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