Grains Report -Friday, Sep. 12
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday along with reports of weaker Russian prices. Sovecon in Russia raised production estimates to 86.1 million tons, from 85.4 million in its previous estimate, due to increased Spring wheat production found in the Volga valley region. However, other private analysts question the big production estimates put forward by Sovecon and other large sources and claim they are way too large. The Ruble hs been weaker to help support higher internal prices paid to farmers in Russia. It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia. A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality. The Spring Wheat harvest is active and the Winter Wheat harvest is done. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Russian Black Sea prices have been dropping as late yields have improved. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 511, 505 and 499 December, with resistance at 527, 535, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 502, 496, and 490 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday as the light volume trading continued. The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana. Crop condition ratings were mostly good last week. Chart trends are down on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality. Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Harvest is increasing in Mississippi and Arkansas.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1136, and 1124 November and resistance is at 1181, 1201, and 1229 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday as the crop is maturing and despite ideas that USDA will cut back on production estimates later this week in the next round of monthly reports. Ideas are still that supplies will be more than ample for the demand, but the current weather and reports of disease has hurt yield potential. This comes as some private forecasters such as FC Stone, Allendale, and S&P have kept yield estimates extremely high. Ethanol demand was down 6% from last month at 456 million bushels and there are concerns about feed demand moving forward as feeder cattle imports from Mexico have been banned due to reports of screw worm disease in the cattle. There are also ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and it should be mostly dry. Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were lower and are now testing recent lows.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 414, 410, and 404 December, and resistance is at 425, 430, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 319, 313, and 307 December, and resistance is at 329, 338, and 344 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil was higher. Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest. The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size. A drop in condition ratings by USDA was expected and given as a reason to buy and traders now anticipate that USDA will cut back on yield estimates in its next round of monthly reports later this week. China has not bought Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 22,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1020, 1012, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1037, 1044, and 1055 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 274.00, 270.00, and 266.00 October, and resistance is at 288.00, 290.00, and 293.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4940, 4840, and 4740 October, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5340 October.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower along with Chicago price action. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher. Concerns remain about demand potential. The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs. Trends are down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 596.00 November, with resistance at 636.00, 653.00, and 661.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4380, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.
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