Grains Report - Tuesday, Aug. 26
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little higher yesterday. The Winter Wheat harvest is almost over now and the Spring Wheat harvest is active. Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year. Canada could still produce an average to above average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that has so far hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Russian Black Sea prices have been firming as producers are not making sales and are looking for higher prices to offset yield losses. Reports from Russia indicate that later weather has improved and that somewhat higher yields than were forecast earlier are now possible. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 495, 490 and 484 September, with resistance at 526, 532, and 541 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 496, 492, and 486 September, with resistance at 549, 552, and 559 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
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RICE
General Comments Rice was higher yesterday in recovery trading after the dramatic selloff seen last week as the harvest is active in /Texas and Louisiana. Chart trends are down on the charts. The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand. New crop harvesting has started in Louisiana with reports of good but not great yields and quality. There is more concern about the crops in Arkansas where it has turned very hot. Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now and harvest has started near the Gulf Coast.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1140, 1132, and 1120 September and resistance is at 1177, 1220, and 1240 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on ideas that the Pro Farmer tour did not back up USDA yield projections, especially east of the Mississippi River. There still appeared to be speculative selling on widespread record crop production predictions based on additional forecasts for improving weather for the Midwest, but there was more short covering from speculators and commercial buying. Temperatures should average below normal this week and it should be mostly dry. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Pro Farmer on Friday estimated Corn yields at 182.7 bu/acre, below USDA estimates and much of the trade. Oats were lower and made new lows for the move.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 382, and 378 September, and resistance is at 396, 404, and 411 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 309, 303, and 297 September, and resistance is at 326, 333, and 338 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower after reports released last week of strong yield potential from the Pro Farmer tour with both tour groups finding strong yield potential in the east and the west. China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast. Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Pro Farmer released its production estimates from the tour it took last week. Soybeans yields were estimated at 53 bushels per acre, a new record and above trade estimates and USDA estimates.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1023, 1016, and 1008 September, and resistance is at 1050, 1067, and 1074 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 277.00, 271.00, and 267.00 September, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 5320, 5120, and 5030 September, with resistance at 5600, 5720, and 5840 September.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today on ides of weaker demand following the recent rally in futures and also the rally in the Ringgit. Demand for export has been strong to start the month. Futures were also higher today as the increase in ending stocks was not as much as anticipated. There was talk that India will soon be buying a lot with festivals coming soon. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather still around.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 635.00, 623.00, and 602.00 November, with resistance at 676.00, 683.00, and 696.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4410, 4340, and 4300 November, with resistance at 4530, 4590, and 4650 November.
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