WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher in recovery trading. The buying came mostly from speculators and came in response to news that the US government will stay open and USDA will continue to release its reports.  It was also the first day of trading for a new month and new quarter and it looks like the turn of the page in the calendar changed the viewpoints of some in the trade. Futures only recovered part of the losses seen on Friday and trends are stil down, but more buying and rallies this week could change the narrative.  Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market at $270.00 per ton and is getting quite a bit of business.  Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business due to the higher Russian prices.  Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and Ukraine is still exporting, although mostly over land through the EU at higher costs. Ukraine has lately shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage.  Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  China bought 220,000 tons of US Winter Wheat

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 528 December.  Support is at 541, 534, and 528 December, with resistance at 570, 583, and 600 December.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 652 December.  Support is at 662, 656, and 650 November, with resistance at 703, 712, and 716 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives.  Support is at 708, 704, and 698 December, and resistance is at 752, 766, and 777 December.

Photo by Marek Studzinski on Unsplash

RICE

General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again after moving higher in early trading. USDA is staying open along with the rest of the US government and will issue the next production report next week.  Ideas are that production will be less in this and coming reports.  Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward.  The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season.  India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas.  Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1577, 1573, and 1561 November and resistance is at 1607, 1629, and 1637 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday in recovery trading.  The Corn harvest is underway with yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident.  Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices.  Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week.  The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal.  Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production.  The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.  That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 478, 474, and 465 December, and resistance is at 490, 493, and 399 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 418, 410, and 394 December, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 480 December.

SOYBEANS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower.  Much of the buying came in response to news that the US government and USDA will stay open and issue reports that are the lifeblood of the business.  The US Dollar was higher, but so were many other markets as many bought on the news.  Initial yield results for the new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet.  The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year.  Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures for the Midwest for the first half of the week, then dry and cool conditions.  Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas.  Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now.  Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries.

Overnight News:  China bought 265,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1255 and 1223 November.  Support is at 1260, 1246, and 1225 November, and resistance is at 1298, 1307, and 1322 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 363.00 December.  Support is at 374.00, 367.00, and 362.00 December, and resistance is at 379.00, 385.00, and 388.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5440 and 5280 December.  Support is at 5560, 5520, and 5470 December, with resistance at 5900, 6000, and 6110 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on hopes for improved demand and smaller monthly ending stocks.  AmSpec said that exports for September were 5.4% higher than the previous month.  Traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future..  Canola was closed for a holiday.  Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crops have been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop condition.  Speculators were selling as the trends are turning down again.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 695.00 and 676.00 November.  Support is at 694.00, 684.00, and 679.00 November, with resistance at 729.00, 744.00, and 754.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3900 and 4020 December.  Support is at 3690, 3640, and 3560 December, with resistance at 3750, 3840, and 3860 December.

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