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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday as the stock market rallied an ad the government will stay open through at least mid November. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. However, there are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.07 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 39,075 bales, from 39,075 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 17 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.30, 85.60, and 85.20 December, with resistance of 88.90, 90.00 and 91.20 December.

Crop Progress

• Date 1-Oct 24-Sep 2022 Avg
• Cotton Bolls Opening 75 65 76 73
• Cotton Harvested 18 13 21 17

Crop Condition

• Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
• Cotton This Week 24 19 27 25 5
• Cotton Last Week 20 22 28 25 5
• Cotton Last Year 15 31 23 27 4

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week but could not hold the best gains of the week or the breakout higher that was completed early in the week. It was a disappointing week of price action for those looking for the market to keep marching higher in terms of price. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Futures have stalled out in the last week as the hurricanes are missing Florida and are instead landing farther north up the coast. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. Florida Citrus Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are now 44.5% less than last year.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 338.00, 334.00, and 325.00 November, with resistance at 349.00, 369.00, and 371.00 November.

Coffee

General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed mixed yesterday on a higher US Dollar and reports of improved the offers from Brazil and Vietnam. It is still very hot and dry in Brazil and the weather is starting to support the prices in New York. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas has improved due to the recent price strength in Robusta, but the Vietnam harvest is now underway and growers there are reported to be excited to sell into higher prices seen currently. London is now in a sideways trend as a result. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest under way and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.441 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 149.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 139.00 December, and resistance is at 153.00, 155.00 and 157.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2430, 2390, and 2350 November, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 November.

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday. In reaction to the big deliveries posted in New York. It was a record at 2.87 million tons or 56,470 contacts. There are still forecasts for rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains could still be a few weeks off but the rainy season should be under way soon. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production. European beet producers are reported to be less interested in planting this year due to environmental regulations imposed by the EU.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2600, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2710, 2730, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 701.00 and 674.00 December. Support is at 701.00, 693.00, and 680.00 December, with resistance at 722.00, 728.00, and 733.00 December.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as the main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. Speculators were the best buyers after selling last week. Futures seem to be high enough in price for now and some speculators have been taking money off the table. The charts still suggest that a correction is possible and that it is possible that futures and cash prices have gotten a little too high for the demand side of the market despite production losses seen during the growing season. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.958 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3250 December. Support is at 3390, 3370, and 3300 December, with resistance at 3490, 3570, and 3600 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2920 and 2810 December. Support is at 2900, 2810, and 2760 December, with resistance at 3000, 3060, and 3100 December.

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