Grains Report - Tuesday, Jan. 21
WHEAT
General Comments: Chicago closed a little higher and Kansas City and Minneapolis were slightly lower last week on reports of weaker overseas values and chart trends are mixed. Russian and Ukrainian prices were soft earlier this week despite less Wheat on offer. Buyer have not been active lately. USDA showed stronger than expected weekly export sales, but the sales were not strong enough to create much meaningful buying interest. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 529, 526, and 520 March, with resistance at 552, 555, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 563, 568, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 578, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 589, 598, and 601 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week. Futures showed some weakness late in the week on reports of beneficial rains in South American production areas. Argenztina and southern Brazil saw the best rain in a long time and selling was seen in many ag markets with strong South American ties. Prices got very cheap early this Winter but have rebounded as farmers have not been selling. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is there but is not strong enough right now to bid prices much higher. Milling yields have been called poor at 50 lbs instead of 55 lbs. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are still up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1443, 1434 and 1423 March and resistance is at 1487, 1500, and 1516 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and at new highs for the move last week despite news of better rains for Argentina and southern Brazil. The rains will help preserve strong yield potential although more will be needed soon. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish but might be part of the price for now. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates in its reports released a week ago. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate. The USDA weekly export sales report showed very strong sales. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here next week. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. The US is also the major supplier to the world of Corn right now so the sales could hold relatively strong even with trade wars possible. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 489, 499, and 504 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 335, 333, and 329 March, and resistance is at 369, 376, and 383 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher despite reports of beneficial rains seen in southern Brazil and Argentina. More rain will be needed before the harvest to finish the crops, but the reported rains went a long way to keeping yield estimates strong for both regions. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Bullish US production estimates released by USDA a week ago showed that ending stocks are now estimated at 350 million bushels. This is still a lot of Soybeans but much less than before. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose and in part as the dryness seen before the harvest made US Soybeans easier to store for use down the road. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now and the weekly export sales report showed less sales than seen earlier in the season.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1019, 1009, and 996 March, and resistance is at 1067, 1075, and 1079 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 292.00, 285.00, and 282.00 March, and resistance is at 305.00, 310.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4480, 4370, and 4310 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4940 March.
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