Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and made new contract lows despite strong weekly export sales. The US Dollar has been strong and Crude Oil futures have been weaker. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 66.20, 65.60, and 65.00 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as another cold front is expected in the east early next week, but should not harm crops in Florida. Chart trends are turning down on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight as USDA maintained its Florida production estimate at 12 million boxes and estimated US production at 60.3 million boxes from 60.6 million in its previous estimate. The lack of lower production goes against ideas of declining demand and even if demand is holding well. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 461.00, 454.00, and 45a2.00 March, with resistance at 477.00, 484.00, and 489.00 March.

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on reports of improving rains for southern Brazil and increased offers by Vietnam producers before the Tet holiday. The producers need the money for the festivities and to help tide them over with much of the country closed during the festival. The rains in Brazil are falling in the dry southern area as central areas have had good rains in recent weeks and are already in good condition. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. In Brazil, CECAFE said that 2024 exports were 50.4 million bags, a new record that is not likely to be repeated this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 299.18 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4770, 4630, and 4510 March, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 March.

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London were higher in recovery trading amid oversold chart conditions. Ideas of increasing Brazil and Asian production are keeping prices low overall. The move came despite the UNICA news of reduced production and processing in the latest reporting period in center south Brazil. UNICA said that the production for the last two weeks in December was 65% less than the year before at 1.73 million tons. Sugar production was 64,000 tons, down 73% from the previous year, ane ethanol production was 486 million liters, down8% from the previous year. Center-south Brazil, India, and Thailand all have improved production potential. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales and help keep pressure on prices. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1790, 1760, and 1730 March and resistance is at 1900, 1940, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 466.00, 460.00, and 454.00 March, with resistance at 495.00, 501.00, and 510.00 March.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower again yesterday as Ivory Cost port arrivals remain above projections. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row, but demand has been weakening. The European grind was down 5.4% from last year and the Asian grind was down 0.52%. Cocoa processing in Brazil was 5.5% less. Chart trends are tuning down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 10250, 9830, and 9450 March, with resistance at 11880, 12000, and 12910 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.

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