Grains Report - Thursday, March 30

General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on short covering tied to ideas that the world economy has passed its worst test with the banking problems. In addition, Russia announced it is increasing taxes on exports of Wheat. Cargill and Viterra said that they will shut export programs in Russia and might be bowing to Russian pressure to do so as the country is moving to take more control of the export program. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 794 May. Support is at 705, 692, and 675 May, with resistance at 728, 738, and 743 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 945 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 878, 896, and 898 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 860, 846, and 833 March, and resistance is at 892, 899, and 910 May.

wheat field

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher with only the nearby May contact lower. Trends are now mixed on the May charts. It looks like some speculators are leaving the market or bear spreading in case of a bullish surprise on the reports coming on Friday. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near o below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1749, and 1724 May and resistance is at 1800, 1820, and 1831 May.

General Comments: Corn closed mixed to a little higher yesterday as much improved export demand continued. The front months closed higher. Demand from China and unknown destinations has greatly increased in the last two weeks. The USDA export sales report was a marketing year high and the third highest sales amount in the last 20 years. Oats were higher and trends remain up in this market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. The Brazil Summer crop and the Argentine crop is developing under stressful conditions. It has been wet so the Soybeans harvest has been delayed and the Safrinha Corn planting is becoming delayed as well. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. Brazil sources say that 20% of the Winter crop could be planted outside of the ideal window so yields could be hurt in the end. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed.
Overnight News: Chiuna bought 178,000 tons of US Corn

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 663 and 681 May. Support is at 643, 638, and 628 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 400 May. Support is at 370, 367, and 362 May, and resistance is at 386, 388, and 394 May.

General Comments: Soybeans the products were mixed to higher yesterday. The trends are mixed in these markets. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. Private analysts say the harvest there is now 70% complete. However, the basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1462, 1451 and 1445 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1516, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 435.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 462.00, 467.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5130, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5980 May.

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on what was reported to be speculative buying tied to the price action for Soybran Oil in Chicago There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has revoked some export permits to keep internal prices controlled and to support the bio fuels industry there. The controls are expected to last through Ramadan. Peninsular Malaysia has had bad weather. Canola was higher again yesterday. There are some ideas that Canola futures have fallen enough for now. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 745.00, 733.00, and 715.00 May, with resistance at 772.00, 790.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3790 and 3970 June. Support is at 3680, 3610, and 3500 June, with resistance at 3720, 3750, and 3830 June.

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Grains Report - Tuesday, March 28
Grains Report - Monday, March 27

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