Grains Report - Thursday, Aug. 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in reversal type trading as the weather market continued and this time featured dry weather in southern Russia. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Only HRW had any higher closes yesterday as SRW and Minneapolis closed lower. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks and Minneapolis remains in a trading range. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather but a few showers are possible in the region this week. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below
normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 711, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 739, 749, and 767 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 678, 658, and 649 September, with resistance at 719, 724, and 745 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 899, 888, and 879 September, and resistance is at 928, 945, and 954 September.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower for one more day as the harvest is underway. Traders anticipate weaker production. The harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana but the harvest is coming now. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. There have also been some quality problems reported in Texas with smut the major problem. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending sideways to lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1308, 1304, and 1269 September. Support is at 1310, 1298, and 1293 September, with resistance at 1340, 1348, and 1360 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on some forecasts for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt, and continuing concerns about demand The shipments seen this week were strong, but the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Some think that export demand should return to the market soon. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little lower with the other ag markets and despite the uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 572 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 424 September. Support is at 440, 436, and 424 September, and resistance is at 450, 464, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in recovery trading and despite more forecasts for good production and improved weather along with worries about weaker than expected demand. Chart trends remain down. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but western Iowa got very beneficial rain over the weekend. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 300,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1287 and 1232 September. Support is at 1313, 1308, and 1296 September, and resistance is at 1337, 1351, and 1358 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 339.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6160, 6090, and 5940 September, with resistance at 6310, 6390, and 6520 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower today on ideas of weakening Indian demand. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again yesterday in correction trading. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in the Canadian Prairies and northern US Great Plains. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 859.00, 823.00, and 807.00 November, with resistance at 906.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3965 October. Support is at 4190, 4090, and 4000 October, with resistance at 4370, 4480, and 4500 October.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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