Grains Report - Monday, Sept. 25

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General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower last week on news that the Fed will keep interest rates high into next year as the means to combat inflation. It was also lower on news that Russia is still offering through the Black Sea although it is asking for $270.00 per ton and the price is considered high for the buyers. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russian production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated and now Ukraine is exporting again. Ukraine has now shipped at least three loads of grain through the Black Sea after bombing a lot of Russian ships to allow for safe passage. The Ukrainians feel it is safe enough to ship that way as a number of Russian warships and some other installations are now unable to perform due to Ukrainian bombings. The news could impact any new demand for US Wheat. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 December, with resistance at 600, 607, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 704, 691, and 685 November, with resistance at 726, 733, and 741 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 766, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 791, 793, and 810 December.


General Comments: Rice closed lower last week as the harvest moved past the halfway point There was not much Rice news around. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1573, 1561, and 1555 November and resistance is at 1615, 1629, and 1637 November.

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher and Oats were much lower last week The Corn harvest is underway with yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. The yield reports once again show the value of using GMO seeds as stressful weather was seen in much of the Midwest over the Summer growing season. The market has also been supported as farmers report no real sales or harvest near them. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shutting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year if the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1.161 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 468, 463, and 456 December, and resistance is at 485, 493, and 499 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 419, 410, and 399 December, and resistance is at 430, 445, and 456 December.



General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week as the harvest started to expand. Initial yield results show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data shows that GMO seeds once again supported better production for many producers. Speculators were liquidating long positions. Ideas that yields are disappointing and reports from USDA of new sales of Soybeans provided the support. Weather forecasts call for dry conditions and near-to below-normal temperatures for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil's basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1282, 1276, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1327, 1346, and 1368 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 389.00, 387.00, and 383.00 October, and resistance is at 399.00, 403.00, and 410.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6060 and 5770 October. Support is at 6000, 5940, and 5910 October, with resistance at 6220, 6380, and 6400 October.


Canola And Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week along with the price action in competing vegetable oils and on ideas of increasing supplies. Futures were higher today on positive export news from AmSpec. Bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future.. Canola was lower on Chicago price action and as the harvest has become more active. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now to maintain crop conditions. Speculators were selling as the trends are turning down again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 717 November. Support is at 723.00, 714.00, and 694.00 November, with resistance at 744.00, 754.00, and 767.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3600 and 3460 December. Support is at 3660, 3560, and 3550 December, with resistance at 3740, 3780, and 3820 December.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Monday, Sept. 25
Grains Report - Friday, Sept. 22
Softs Report - Friday, Sept. 22

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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