Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in all three markets last week after another week of low export sales and despite a lower US Dollar. The USDA crop progress and condition report showed improved condition but the overall condition remains mostly bad as the crops enter dormancy. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and that news hurt the Chicago Winter Wheat markets. The news kept Russian and other world Wheat values on the weaker trend. The daily charts for the Chicago markets show down trends and demand fundamentals remain bearish. Minneapolis trends are sideways for now. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 755 and 729 March. Support is at 754, 748, and 742 March, with resistance at 782, 799, and 809 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 818 March. Support is at 860, 850, and 838 March, with resistance at 888, 905, and 910 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 913 March. Support is at 913, 906, and 903 March, and resistance is at 935, 947, and 957 March.

variety of assorted-color beans

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again last week in mostly quiet trading. There is not much going on in this market right now. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1748 and 1720 January. Support is at 1760, 1752, and 1745 January and resistance is at 1775, 1785, and 1797 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, with Corn hurt by a weak export sales report and lower than expected bio fuels mandates offered by EPA. Corn futures showed almost no reaction to news that the Chinese government will ease lockdown restrictions on the populace in response to large protests seen in the country over the last week. Corn is still finding some support on a lack of farmer selling but the lack of export demand has hurt any upside moves. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US. Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. Other interior basis levels have been strong due to a lack of farm selling. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 636 and 613 March. Support is at 638, 624, and 612 March, and resistance is at 654, 6758, and 668 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 358 and 338 March. Support is at 350, 344, and 338 March, and resistance is at 371, 377, and 380 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher last week and Soybean Oil closed sharply lower, with Soybean Oil reacting to the less than expected EPA mandates released on Thursday. Trends remain up Soybean Meal but remain mixed for Soybeans and have turned down for Soybean Oil. The bio fuels mandates proposed by EPA increase the production of the fuels, but not by as much as the trade had expected. Conditions in Brazil are called very good in central and northern areas but are also dry in the south. There was news that China will start to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Demonstrations were reported in China over the weekend due to the Covid lockdowns as some people were killed in an apartment fire. The protesters said the doors were locked due to a lockdown order but the government has denied this. Ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. However, it remains dry in Argentina and the crops and the planting pace are suffering. Export demand for the US is improved with the strong sales from last week. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows.
Overnight News: China bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1424, 1421, and 1407 January, and resistance is at 1443, 1457, and 1465 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 426.00 January. Support is at 419.00, 416.00, and 415.00 January, and resistance is at 426.00 430.00, and 437.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6160 January. Support is at 6420, 6240, and 6070 January, with resistance at 6700, 6740, and 6860 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weakness in competing vegetable oils markets and especially in Soybean Oil. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported but export demand overall has improved lately. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher on ideas of reduced offers into the market and on ideas the break yesterday was overdone. Production estimates released Friday were less than trade expectations to promote the rally. News of less than expected bio fuels mandates from EPA and on n ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 819.00, 803.00, and 791.00 January, with resistance at 849.00, 857.00, and 864.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3920, and 3790 February, with resistance at 4180, 4300, and 4360 February.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Thursday, Dec. 1
Grains Report - Wednesday, Nov. 30
Softs Report - Tuesday, Nov. 29

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.