Grains Report - Wednesday, Nov. 30
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to mostly lower in all three markets yesterday on reports of much cheaper Russian prices in the world market. The export inspections report showed less demand, and demand is not likely to improve with the price disparity showing between the US and Russia. The USDA crop progress and condition report showed improved condition and could be another negative factor for prices today and in the days ahead. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and that news hurt the Chicago Winter Wheat markets. The news kept Russian and other world Wheat values on the weaker trend. The daily charts for the Chicago markets show down trends and demand fundamentals remain bearish. Minneapolis trends are sideways for now. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 774 and 729 March. Support is at 777, 760, and 754 March, with resistance at 809, 815, and 817 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 870 and 818 March. Support is at 865, 860, and 850 March, with resistance at 901, 910, and 924 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 934 and 913 March. Support is at 923, 915, and 901 March, and resistance is at 947, 9761, and 9865 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in what appeared to be mostly quiet trading. The market is looking for direction after the move higher fell apart on Monday. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1785, 1776, and 1770 January and resistance is at 1805, 1815, and 1820 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn finding support on speculative short covering and a lack of farmer selling. December Corn was weaker before the start of deliveries today and dragged March and may a little lower as well. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US. Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The cash market has been strong at the Gulf but weak in the Midwest river areas due to the low river levels. Other interior basis levels have been strong due to a lack of farm selling. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 6564, 658, and 654 March, and resistance is at 674, 677, and 682 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 369 March. Support is at 378, 377, and 375 March, and resistance is at 385, 392, and 398 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday, with Soybeans still reacting to the positive export inspections report released on Monday afternoon and on continued reports of dry conditions in Argentina. Conditions in Brazil are called very good in central and northern areas, but are also dry in the south. Demonstrations were reported in China over the weekend due to the Covid lockdowns as some people were killed in an apartment fire. The protesters said the doors were locked due to a lockdown order but the government has denied this. Ideas that Chinese demand will stay weak overall and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. However, it remains dry in Argentina and the crops and the planting pace are suffering. Export demand for the US is improved with the strong sales from last week. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US but some rain fell in the basin last week and river levels should work a little higher. Barge traffic has been reduced but could increase with the improved river flows.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1481, and 1504 January. Support is at 1441, 1424, and 1421 January, and resistance is at 1469, 1485, and 1493 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 403.00, 400.00, and 399.00 January and resistance is at 414.00 416.00, and 422.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 7210, 7030, and 6820 January, with resistance at 7450, 7530, and 7590 January.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas that recent and current bad harvest weather could affect final production estimates. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported but export demand overall has improved lately. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher yesterday despite ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there. Higher prices in Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil and in Crude Oil supported Canola. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 819.00, 803.00, and 791.00 January, with resistance at 850.00, 857.00, and 864.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4150, 4020, and 3920 February, with resistance at 4280, 4360, and 4400 February.
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Grains Report - Monday, Nov. 28
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