Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 20
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher on Friday on the big wind storm that moved through the Great Plains. No damage reports have been heard yet but the wind blew at hurricane force levels and a lot of the soil was blown around and probably shredded the Wheat. The losses could become significant. Futures were mixed for the week, with HRW closing higher and the other markets closing lower. The big loser for the week was the Minneapolis market. Trends are still sideways in all three markets on the daily charts. Ideas have been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average against previous years. Offer volumes are down in Europe although there has been talk of increased offers from Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia, as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies, caused a lot less production although Russian production was rated as stronger in the most recent USDA WASDE report. The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia plans to announce sales quotas for next year very soon. Russia has already increased export taxes to control the flow of export Wheat out of the country and announced last week that a quota of 8 million tons per month would be put on Wheat exports for the foreseeable future. Australia has had too much rain and the crop quality should be diminished, but conditions are drier now and the harvest is moving ahead. These international moves should increase demand for US Wheat but this has not really happened yet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions but some scattered showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 751, 711, and 709 March. Support is at 751, 741, and 726 March, with resistance at 780, 794, and 798 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 800, 781, and 779 March, with resistance at 822, 834, and 850 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1019, 1009, and 1001 March, and resistance is at 1047, 1056, and 1058 March.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower on Friday and a little lower for the week what appeared to be speculative trading. Futures have now moved lower for the last several weeks after making new highs for the move. Futures and cash market trading have gone quiet for the holidays. Many producers are done harvesting and are hunting and not interested in selling at a time that is traditionally the cheapest prices of the year. Mills have already purchased what they need for the holidays as will not show much interest in the market until the first part of the middle of next month. The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm despite the quiet activity.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1360, 1350, and 1339 January and resistance is at 1390, 1400, and 1410 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on Friday and for the week on a very strong weekly export sales report and as US interior cash markets are holding strong. The weekly export sales report was the strongest of the year. The weekly charts still suggest higher prices are coming longer term and the fundamentals do as well. Corn has relatively tight supplies as farmers are mostly done harvesting and not selling. Demand has been strong for exports and very strong for Ethanol consumption. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward and the strong weekly export sales report was important for the market moving forward. Demand has been good so far this season but a lot of the Chinese business has gone to Ukraine this Fall. That is expected to change over the Winter as Ukraine exportable supplies start to run low. It could change further is Russia invades Ukraine in the future. Interior basis levels are reported to be strong due to strong demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 622 and 647 March. Support is at 589, 582, and 576 March, and resistance is at 599, 605, and 612 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 701, 696, and 690 March, and resistance is at 723, 736, and 739 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on Friday and for the week and the trends are turning up on the daily charts. The weekly Soybeans charts suggest higher prices are coming, but the weekly Soybean Meal charts show that this market broke out and then fell back into support areas. Soybean Oil was higher and trends are sideways on both the daily and weekly charts. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil but it has turned dry in southern Brazil and Argentina. Rains were reported in Argentina and southern Brazil this week so any weather-related concerns have been put aside for now. Even so, it is a La Nina year and that implies drier than normal weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that some Corn has been lost and ideas are that Soybeans could become stressed if the dry weather returns. Brazil could have soybeans ready for export by the end of February and the crop potential is up to 150 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1305, 1344, and 1348 January. Support is at 1276, 1266, and 1237 January, and resistance is at 12304, 1307, and 1317 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 387.00 January. Support is at 370.00, 361.00, and 360.00 January and resistance is at 384.00 388.00, and 394.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5200, and 5100 January, with resistance at 5600, 5700, and 5740 January.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on worries about demand. It was lower today on ideas that demand will be hurt by the return of Covid and the new variants. Traders are mostly worried about India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for biofuels. Improved export demand is reported but still faces headwinds due to the worldwide Covid outbreak. Futures held support at about 4750 on the weekly charts and bounced. Reports of new lockdowns in Europe and a new variant of the Coronavirus discovered in Africa hurt demand ideas on Friday and caused speculative selling to reduce risk. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 992.00, 976.00, and 961.00 January, with resistance at 1020.00, 1038.00, and 1044.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 4160 March Support is at 4350, 4220, and 4160 March, with resistance at 4530, 4580, and 4730 March.
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