Photo by Andrei Lasc on Unsplash

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets held to a trading range last week, Renewed bombing of Ukraine ports by Russia and the unexpected drop in crop condition reported by USDA on Monday night provided the best support. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 595, 586, and 582 September, with resistance at 621, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 761 September. Support is at 770, 766, and 760 September, and resistance is at 803, 811, and 818 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 481,323
: Positions :
: 40,349 117,716 167,990 88,280 105,528 142,697 51,054 439,316 442,288: 42,007 39,035
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,083) :
: -160 5,035 11,191 4,600 -789 -1,981 1,375 13,649 16,811: 2,434 -728
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 24.5 34.9 18.3 21.9 29.6 10.6 91.3 91.9: 8.7 8.1
: Total Traders: 382 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 102 124 102 97 51 31 318 294:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 212,241
: Positions :
: 29,060 49,646 55,689 42,440 63,921 64,916 20,191 192,106 189,447: 20,135 22,794
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,018) :
: 184 6,535 2,870 1,055 -1,588 3,209 754 7,319 8,572: -301 -1,554
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 23.4 26.2 20.0 30.1 30.6 9.5 90.5 89.3: 9.5 10.7
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 38 55 68 65 75 37 16 179 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,807 :
: Positions :
: 31,150 28,505 1,663 160 892 4,777 11,011 4,061 3,594 1,098 3,228 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 :
: 792 -3,029 146 -3 382 -1,533 3,193 1,033 490 102 515 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.0 48.5 2.8 0.3 1.5 8.1 18.7 6.9 6.1 1.9 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 111 :
: 52 42 6 . 6 8 16 13 13 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower again Friday in consolidation trading as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1536, 1529, and 1512 September and resistance is at 1570, 15787, and 1590 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,660 :
: Positions :
: 3,320 8,303 114 0 0 2,791 357 18 1,662 314 784 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 :
: 245 -199 -1 0 0 -162 -93 -1 129 254 -211 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.1 77.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 26.2 3.3 0.2 15.6 2.9 7.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 15 17 . 0 0 13 . . 13 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on a drop in crop condition ratings reported by USDA and as the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the complete tour. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 14.96 billion bushels with a yield of 172 bu/acre Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but will need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 123,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 493, 495, and 508 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 462, 439, and 424 September, and resistance is at 484, 488, and 494 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,811,682
: Positions :
: 114,783 269,979 537,457 558,653 623,246 422,838 144,397 1,633,731 1,575,079: 177,951 236,603
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: 10,430) :
: -10,572 22,199 4,640 11,033 -19,932 -62 4,690 5,039 11,597: 5,392 -1,166
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.3 14.9 29.7 30.8 34.4 23.3 8.0 90.2 86.9: 9.8 13.1
: Total Traders: 773 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 163 208 374 351 55 35 676 641:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,551 :
: Positions :
: 1,070 2,875 126 0 0 631 0 0 294 127 268 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 :
: 76 228 -5 0 0 104 -72 0 0 -16 10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 63.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 6.5 2.8 5.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 7 8 . 0 0 4 0 0 4 . . :

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on less than good crops seen by the Pro Farmer tour last week. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 4.11 billion bushels with a yield of 49.7 bu/acre Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts calling for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week and the next few weeks supported Soybeans futures. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 296,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1415 and 1465 September. Support is at 1364, 1338, and 1320 September, and resistance is at 1401, 1420, and 1440 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 429.00 and 444.00 September. Support is at 415.00, 406.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 424.00, 425.00, and 434.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6310, and 6210 September, with resistance at 6740, 6950, and 7000 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 845,742
: Positions :
: 88,229 62,442 228,486 286,666 439,876 188,775 40,328 792,156 771,132: 53,586 74,610
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: 28,059) :
: 4,904 2,944 8,603 8,154 16,636 1,958 835 23,618 29,017: 4,441 -958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 7.4 27.0 33.9 52.0 22.3 4.8 93.7 91.2: 6.3 8.8
: Total Traders: 573 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 121 164 185 238 53 24 442 476:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 560,340
: Positions :
: 61,074 49,889 141,241 176,209 312,380 147,499 32,513 526,023 536,023: 34,317 24,317
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: 293) :
: 6,924 4,167 535 -6,876 -3,085 865 -16 1,448 1,601: -1,154 -1,308
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 8.9 25.2 31.4 55.7 26.3 5.8 93.9 95.7: 6.1 4.3
: Total Traders: 309 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 57 89 86 99 45 21 255 231:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 520,657
: Positions :
: 58,455 24,118 147,899 134,394 306,531 131,006 13,230 471,754 491,778: 48,903 28,879
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 (Change in open interest: -16,278) :
: -3,014 2,731 -13,035 3,028 -4,090 -1,936 -1,320 -14,957 -15,714: -1,321 -564
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 4.6 28.4 25.8 58.9 25.2 2.5 90.6 94.5: 9.4 5.5
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 43 85 103 104 41 15 257 218:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Futures were lower today as the private sources reported that the export pace is now behind that of last month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was higher on Chicago price action. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed. Ideas are that StatsCan will show a reduction in production potential in its updates later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 859.00, and 854.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,398 :
: Positions :
: 38,914 26,508 560 4,650 1,220 40 900 0 624 8,080 4,040 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 :
: 877 571 0 0 0 0 100 0 -66 140 320 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 85.7 58.4 1.2 10.2 2.7 0.1 2.0 0.0 1.4 17.8 8.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 7 9 . 4 . . . 0 . 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 276,733 :
: Positions :
: 191,115 189,697 4,503 9,607 859 37,170 28,139 24,448 6,345 12,130 10,466 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2023 :
: 8,471 8,884 -25 276 95 -19 219 2,539 1,113 229 772 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 69.1 68.5 1.6 3.5 0.3 13.4 10.2 8.8 2.3 4.4 3.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 349 :
: 57 78 . 8 4 62 28 21 51 90 58 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 902.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 880.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 810.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 807.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,850.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 238.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6535)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 197,774 lots, or 10.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,267 5,294 5,240 5,257 5,232 5,265 33 4,244 20,416
Nov-23 5,258 5,300 5,235 5,253 5,244 5,265 21 170,886 142,873
Jan-24 5,192 5,218 5,163 5,183 5,158 5,192 34 21,283 43,478
Mar-24 5,123 5,150 5,096 5,111 5,094 5,120 26 697 6,557
May-24 5,124 5,155 5,100 5,114 5,097 5,122 25 503 3,183
Jul-24 5,085 5,117 5,066 5,090 5,069 5,086 17 161 311
Corn
Turnover: 1,001,102 lots, or 2.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,819 2,819 2,792 2,795 2,803 2,800 -3 12,634 39,505
Nov-23 2,717 2,720 2,679 2,708 2,706 2,702 -4 734,738 689,546
Jan-24 2,636 2,639 2,616 2,631 2,627 2,628 1 143,148 396,739
Mar-24 2,611 2,622 2,597 2,609 2,605 2,609 4 86,369 117,838
May-24 2,625 2,630 2,611 2,623 2,617 2,622 5 18,914 74,797
Jul-24 2,618 2,623 2,606 2,618 2,612 2,616 4 5,299 15,931
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,758,774 lots, or 11.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,862 4,987 4,862 4,922 4,849 4,932 83 43,132 77,359
Nov-23 4,599 4,712 4,569 4,629 4,556 4,638 82 270,049 327,431
Dec-23 4,264 4,387 4,253 4,313 4,240 4,331 91 60,022 59,877
Jan-24 4,086 4,193 4,064 4,121 4,045 4,133 88 1,996,023 1,860,184
Mar-24 3,807 3,893 3,793 3,819 3,784 3,841 57 19,236 60,633
May-24 3,526 3,594 3,508 3,520 3,501 3,547 46 277,045 478,943
Jul-24 3,459 3,533 3,446 3,467 3,445 3,485 40 75,983 418,439
Aug-24 3,488 3,556 3,475 3,501 3,476 3,509 33 17,284 29,295
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,055,760 lots, or 82.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,824 7,930 7,718 7,766 7,744 7,828 84 16,440 14,580
Oct-23 7,834 7,942 7,718 7,758 7,744 7,830 86 30,088 49,913
Nov-23 7,852 7,964 7,722 7,764 7,748 7,844 96 24,873 56,041
Dec-23 7,848 7,960 7,712 7,756 7,748 7,838 90 12,993 33,930
Jan-24 7,800 7,922 7,670 7,720 7,694 7,800 106 914,383 443,875
Feb-24 7,798 7,920 7,676 7,720 7,700 7,790 90 11,287 18,244
Mar-24 7,778 7,910 7,670 7,712 7,686 7,788 102 6,700 18,414
Apr-24 7,746 7,874 7,634 7,676 7,644 7,738 94 2,895 3,529
May-24 7,718 7,812 7,568 7,614 7,574 7,684 110 35,779 54,483
Jun-24 7,596 7,698 7,500 7,534 7,482 7,608 126 103 723
Jul-24 7,474 7,600 7,398 7,440 7,372 7,490 118 156 971
Aug-24 7,416 7,500 7,370 7,398 7,310 7,430 120 63 95
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,473,914 lots, or 12.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,948 8,990 8,778 8,808 8,736 8,902 166 24,446 17,917
Nov-23 8,900 8,986 8,694 8,748 8,762 8,844 82 79,057 105,173
Dec-23 8,710 8,846 8,570 8,618 8,636 8,708 72 8,887 36,756
Jan-24 8,510 8,660 8,366 8,416 8,400 8,514 114 1,290,967 624,893
Mar-24 8,244 8,318 8,050 8,094 8,066 8,178 112 3,562 33,554
May-24 7,958 8,088 7,832 7,874 7,820 7,966 146 45,597 72,617
Jul-24 7,810 7,976 7,738 7,764 7,712 7,850 138 15,397 112,647
Aug-24 7,844 7,994 7,758 7,808 7,738 7,872 134 6,001 16,160
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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