Grains Report - Monday, April 10

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower last week on what appeared to be new selling from speculators. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near-record Wheat crops this year. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and has been hindered by low prices and aggressive offers from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 645 and 602 May. Support is at 654, 648, and 642 May, with resistance at 692, 712, and 724 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 830 and 792 May. Support is at 853, 843, and 823 May, with resistance at 875, 888, and 896 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 840, 823, and 814 May. Support is at 870, 860, and 846 March, and resistance is at 887, 899, and 910 May.

wheat field

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

General Comments: Rice was lower last week and trends are down on the May daily charts. Demand has been good from domestic sources and offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice. Markets from Texas to Mississippi are called quiet. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for exports. Planting remains active in Texas and southern Louisiana with field conditions called very good in Louisiana and too dry in parts of Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1631, 1625, and 1620 May and resistance is at 1689, 1700, and 1723 May.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week, with Corn lower on reports of increased selling of cash gain by American farmers and forecasts for improved field working conditions net week as the weather is expected to turn drier and warmer for much of the central US. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months if not longer. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. Safrinha Corn planting in Brazil is delayed. These delays continue, but the harvest of Soybeans and the planting of Corn is now progressing well. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens. However, it is very wet now and some early planting has been delayed. Warmer and drier weather is expected this week to allow for at least some fieldwork to get done.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 643, and 638 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 317 May. Support is at 336, 333, and 328 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 3698 May.

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week on reduced demand ideas for US Soybeans. Reports from Brazil show that basis levels there are under pressure due to the large crop being harvested now. The basis might get higher later in the marketing period as total South American production is probably about the same as last year. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Soybeans export demand is flowing to Brazil now. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, so some areas can get started with fieldwork
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1485 and 1463 May. Support is at 1483, 1471 and 1462 May, and resistance is at 1507, 1527, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 428.00 May. Support is at 446.00, 425.00, and 422.00 May, and resistance is at 459.00, 469.00, and 475.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5390, 5`30, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again last week on follow through buying tied to the OPEC news and on a lack of offer from Indonesia. Futures were higher again today. Trends turned mixed on the daily charts despite news that OPEC was cutting oil production again. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was a little higher last week on bad weather now. Forecasts for warmer weather to show up in the Prairies this week could start to allow for fieldwork to start. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 780.00, 789.00, and 798.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3760 and 3650 June. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 June, with resistance at 3870, 3980, and 4050 June.

More By This Author:

Softs Report - Thursday, April 6
Grains Report - Wednesday, April 5
Softs Report - Friday, March 31

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