Grains Report - Friday, Sept. 10

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower on big fund selling. Trends turned down on the daily charts. Traders were getting ready for the USDA production and WASDE reports to be released later today. The demand has not been seen here, so ideas of increased ending stocks are around. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 680 and 652 December. Support is at 693, 675, and 657 December, with resistance at 706, 714, and 733 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 670, 659, and 638 December. Support is at 684, 677, and 659 December, with resistance at 72697, 715, and 720 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 865, 857, and 830 December, and resistance is at 890, 9203, and 915 December.

Image by Julio César García from Pixabay

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed yesterday as the market prepared for the USDA production and WASDE reports that will be released later today. It was a low volume day. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1308, and 1299 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower on ideas of increasing production and less demand. The trade widely expects USDA to show improved yields in its production estimates that will be released later today, and planted area was increased yesterday Demand ideas are dropping due to less than hoped for demand at the current time and now because of the effects of Hurricane Ida. The weekly export inspections report showed how the US export pace was affected by the hurricane, but this is expected to be temporary and last only a few weeks at the most. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical power in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi now have power restored and some are starting to export again. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower yesterday on speculative profit taking before the USDA reports as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 923,000 barrels per day in the week ending September 3rd, from 905,000 last week, and 926,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol stocks fell to a three-month low 20.4 million gallons in the week ending Sept. 3, from 21.1 million last week, and 19.8 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 488 December. Support is at 504, 500, and 494 December, and resistance is at 520, 530, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 485 and 468 December. Support is at 480, 467, and 459 December, and resistance is at 502, 512, and 518 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower and the products were mixed to lower as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later today. FSA released the plantings reports early yesterday and Soybeans planted are was increased. The trade also looks for higher yield estimates for increased production and ending stocks. Funds were the best sellers. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators has been restored. Some elevators have started to export again. Demand has held together despite the export problems but the export inspections report showed that very little is getting shipped right now as the exporters scramble to find other ports to send the grain. The weekly export sales report was also expected to be poor as many US exporters have had to pull offers for now Demand is still weaker than expected overall.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1241, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 13277, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 325.00 October. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 328.00 October, and resistance is at 340.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with objectives of 5480 and 5210 October. Support is at 5480, 5420, and 5360 October, with resistance at 5730, 5850, and 6010 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on what was called speculative profit taking. Demand has shown signs of returning to the market. Exports were not strong last month and have shown improvement in the data so far this month. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower yesterday in preparation for the USDA reports and as the harvest is getting ready to start. The StatsCan report that showed more than expected ending stocks when it was released on Wednesday. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 804.00 November. Support is at 830.00, 823.00, and 809.00 November, with resistance at 884.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4370, 4270, and 4150 November, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4600 November.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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