WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday on news that Russia has sent a letter to the UN demanding changes in the export agreement in the Black Sea with Ukraine. Russia is looking to export more and wants Ukraine to export less and to only countries it defines as poor. USDA cut demand more than the trade had expected and left endng stocks below last month but higher than trade expectations. Ukraine apparently bombed a bridge connecting Russia and Crimea over the weekend and Russia retaliated on Monday by bombing cities in Ukraine including Kiev. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected. Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 873, 863, and 854 December, with resistance at 906, 946, and 950 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 964, 960, and 943 December, with resistance at 997, 1010, and 1033 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 956, 929, and 9207 December, and resistance is at 993, 1001, and 1024 December.

Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading and as the harvest pressure continued. The weekly charts show that futures are trying to break through some big support areas. USDA left its production estimates unchanged in its reports yesterday and cut export demand by 2.0 million cwt for an increase in ending stocks levels. The data did not show any major changes so futures were able to hold and close on a firm note. Harvest progress is now rapid in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1668, 1666, and 1658 November and resistance is at 1688, 1692, and 1704 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports that showed ending stocks above trade expectations but less than a month ago. Corn also foiund support from the Ukraine-Russia news as Russia is now asking for major changes in the deal to permit esports from Black Sea ports US production was cut in line with trade expectations but demand was cut more and ending stocks were higher than trade expectations, although below last month. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said barges may use the river again now. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 684, 680, and 672 December, and resistance is at 706, 708, and 716 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 395, 392, and 377 December, and resistance is at 411, 420, and 421 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday but Soybean Meal was lower. The market was not strong considering that there have been export sales of 1.0 million tons of Soybeans in the last two days. USDA reduced production and demand and ending stocks were left unchanged. The trade had expected increased ending stocks due to much less demand. The US will still harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start kept the rally in check and futures closed with only moderate gains after a sharp rally above 1400 when the report was released. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said yesterday that barge traffic is permitted in the river. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News: China bought 392,000 tons of US Soiybeans and unknown destinations bought198,000 tons of US Soybeans. Philippines bought 230,000 tons of Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1434, 1483, and 1527 November. Support is at 1385, 1377, and 1365 November, and resistance is at 1414, 1427, and 1437 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 421.00 December. Support is at 409.00, 404.00, and 400.00 December, and resistance is at 419.00 423.00, and 430.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6330, and 6130 December, with resistance at 6760, 6800, and 7120 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on ideas of oversold market conditions and despite bearish stocks dat from MPOB. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market Export data has been strong this month and MPOB reported improved demand last month. Canola was higher yesterday on a stronger Canadian Dollar and in reaction to the USDA reports. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 852.00, 841.00, and 828.00 November, with resistance at 877.00, 891.00, and 894.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3560, 3400, and 3330 December, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3960 December.

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