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Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher yesterday as the war in Ukraine escalated. Ukraine apparently bombed a bridge connecting Russia and Crimea and Russia retaliated by bombing cities in Ukraine including Kiev. There is more talk now that the grain export deal for Ukraine could end or not be renewed. Ships entering ports of Ukraine and Russia got another level of damage over the weekend. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected. Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 952, 970, and 975 December. Support is at 897, 873, and 854 December, with resistance at 950, 954, and 1002 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1019, 1036, and 1087 December. Support is at 1011, 985, and 964 December, with resistance at 1037, 1054, and 1129 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1005, 1013, and 1020 December. Support is at 1001, 982, and 959 December, and resistance is at 1024, 1056, and 1066 December.

 

Rice:

General Comments: Rice was lower yesterday as the harvest pressure continued. The weekly charts show that futures are trying to break through some big support areas. Harvest progress is now rapid in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1660 and 1607 November. Support is at 1666, 1658, and 1649 November and resistance is at 1692, 1704, and 1719 November.

 

Corn And Oats:

General Comments: Corn closed higher in preparation for the USDA reports to be released on Wednesday and as the fighting in Ukraine escalated. Ukraine apparently bombed a bridge connecting Russia and Crimea and Russia bombed some Ukraine cities including Kiev in retaliation. It is more possible that the agreement to allow Ukraine to export grain could be cancelled and Russia might have trounble too due to the increased tensions.. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said barges may use the river again now. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 708, 711, and 716 December. Support is at 691, 684, and 672 December, and resistance is at 706, 708, and 716 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 377, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 406, 411, and 420 December.

 

Soybeans:

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday but were the worst performing markets in the room. The rally came primarily in response to the increased tensions in Ukraine and ideas of a bullish USDA report on Wednesday, but ideas that the US will harvest plenty of Soybeans in the next few weeks and ideas that Brazil is off to a very good start kept the rally in check and futures closed with only moderate gains. The Mississippi river is low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US and there are no forecasts for an improvement soon. Barge traffic has been reduced but the Coast Guard said yesterday that barge traffic is permitted in the river. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed . Support is at 1349, 1333, and 1316 November, and resistance is at 1395, 1399, and 1407 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed . Support is at 400.00, 392.00, and 388.00 December, and resistance is at 409.00 412.00, and 417.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 7080 December. Support is at 6560, 6440, and 6330 December, with resistance at 6760, 6800, and 7110 December.

 

Canola And Palm Oil: 

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on ideas of reduced ending stocks for last month. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but the private sources reported a big increase in demand in its reports released covering last month. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures markat data has been strong this month. Canola was closed yesterday. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 938 November. Support is at 852.00, 841.00, and 828.00 November, with resistance at 877.00, 891.00, and 894.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3620, 3560, and 3400 December, with resistance at 3920, 3960, and 4020 December.

 

DJ Malaysia October 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 13.5%, SGS Says 

Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated down 13.5% on month at 361,602 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.

The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Oct. 1-10           Sept. 1-10

RBD Palm Olein                 94,592              128,444

RBD Palm Oil                   19,250               34,662

RBD Palm Stearin               44,700               41,797

Crude Palm Oil                 57,000               57,050

Total*                        361,602              418,120

*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

 

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 373,030 Tons, Up 0.5%, AmSpec Says 

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated up 0.5% on month at 373,030 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.

The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Oct 1-10      Sept 1-10

RBD Palm Olein       124,495       120,600

RBD Palm Oil         18,650        38,062

RBD Palm Stearin     57,360        42,807

Crude Palm Oil       42,000        63,050

Total*               373,030       371,091

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast::  Mostly dry or isolated showers today.  Temperatures should average below normal.

  

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
October	190 Dec	225 Dec	200 Dec	180 Nov
November	190 Dec	225 Dec	200 Dec	180 Nov
December	165 Dec	215 Dec	200 Dec	155 Nov

 

 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct              857.50     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Nov              867.50     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Dec              877.50     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar      892.50     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      902.50     -35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct               860.00     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Nov               870.00     -25.00      Unquoted   –        –

Dec               880.00     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar       895.00     -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun       905.00     -35.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct               800.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct               700.00    -20.00       Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct               3650.00   -100.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Taded

Oct               266.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.671)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 11 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 129,893 lots, or 7.66 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Nov-22     5,971     5,992     5,914     5,922     5,978     5,947       -31    75,842    69,239

Jan-23     5,852     5,899     5,803     5,807     5,864     5,837       -27    44,948    73,063

Mar-23     5,767     5,781     5,714     5,717     5,767     5,743       -24     8,651    27,962

May-23     5,748     5,769     5,716     5,725     5,751     5,733       -18       435     2,295

Jul-23     5,722     5,722     5,654     5,682     5,714     5,683       -31        12       313

Sep-23     5,699     5,699     5,645     5,645     5,681     5,671       -10         5        23

Corn

Turnover: 764,440 lots, or 21.60 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Nov-22     2,780     2,805     2,770     2,798     2,758     2,790        32   147,477   130,374

Jan-23     2,807     2,835     2,804     2,827     2,782     2,822        40   425,830   713,594

Mar-23     2,820     2,850     2,816     2,842     2,798     2,839        41    95,547   262,112

May-23     2,851     2,889     2,851     2,882     2,839     2,878        39    54,944   111,922

Jul-23     2,869     2,902     2,869     2,894     2,850     2,886        36    38,890    83,407

Sep-23     2,878     2,913     2,878     2,905     2,867     2,901        34     1,752     3,274

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,172,036 lots, or 47.94 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

Settle                                  Interest

Nov-22     4,906     4,906     4,830     4,878     4,886     4,876       -10    79,039     116,363

Dec-22     4,600     4,600     4,455     4,508     4,581     4,526       -55    79,184     171,852

Jan-23     4,114     4,116     4,032     4,045     4,112     4,066       -46   832,100   1,494,657

Mar-23     3,911     3,930     3,864     3,881     3,911     3,893       -18    18,785      74,273

May-23     3,658     3,666     3,612     3,626     3,677     3,643       -34   137,631     292,989

Jul-23     3,634     3,641     3,587     3,594     3,644     3,613       -31    18,912      39,471

Aug-23     3,687     3,694     3,657     3,657     3,699     3,671       -28     2,817      13,707

Sep-23     3,654     3,675     3,620     3,629     3,673     3,640       -33     3,568       8,561

Palm Oil

Turnover: 907,864 lots, or 69.30 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Oct-22     8,150     8,212     7,862     8,034     7,466     8,168       702       378       516

Nov-22     7,814     7,988     7,810     7,968     7,802     7,894        92    16,587    36,124

Dec-22     7,762     7,898     7,730     7,892     7,696     7,820       124     6,020    63,593

Jan-23     7,600     7,710     7,522     7,690     7,562     7,632        70   822,405   409,698

Feb-23     7,552     7,680     7,494     7,660     7,526     7,598        72     3,518    39,723

Mar-23     7,520     7,668     7,456     7,644     7,522     7,592        70     3,638    23,819

Apr-23     7,546     7,642     7,442     7,626     7,546     7,564        18     6,872    22,122

May-23     7,460     7,620     7,436     7,600     7,514     7,536        22    46,658    78,076

Jun-23     7,482     7,578     7,404     7,558     7,420     7,510        90     1,478     1,243

Jul-23     7,418     7,522     7,400     7,522     7,478     7,472        -6        17       150

Aug-23     7,380     7,462     7,306     7,440     7,390     7,402        12       115        96

Sep-23     7,364     7,458     7,334     7,430     7,440     7,398       -42       178       296

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 656,859 lots, or 60.19 billion yuan

Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

Settle                                Interest

Nov-22    10,300    10,454    10,228    10,454    10,120    10,320       200    14,417    37,833

Dec-22    10,042    10,080     9,826     9,998     9,734     9,934       200     8,279    76,739

Jan-23     9,172     9,250     9,090     9,232     9,140     9,186        46   590,296   414,939

Mar-23     8,566     8,666     8,496     8,624     8,570     8,590        20     4,248    43,215

May-23     8,300     8,410     8,234     8,388     8,328     8,318       -10    35,580    62,396

Jul-23     8,246     8,322     8,150     8,284     8,262     8,238       -24     2,090    13,997

Aug-23     8,148     8,280     8,116     8,244     8,234     8,198       -36     1,579    16,548

Sep-23     8,130     8,230     8,100     8,200     8,230     8,166       -64       370       718

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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