Grains Report - Friday, May 16
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on ideas that the market was very oversold. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry. Big rains are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and northern Midwest this weekend. Rain is moderate in the southern Midwest and Mid South. Chart trends are mixed. Enough Wheat has always been available to the market and demand for US Wheat in export markets has been poor. Dry outlooks for the Black Sea regions are still around. Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 504, 498, and 492 July, with resistance at 533, 540, and 548 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 500, 494, and 488 July, with resistance at 525, 531, and 547 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 July, and resistance is at 606, 617, and 621 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying and ideas that the market had become oversold. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Export sales have not been strong, and domestic demand is not strong enough right now to bid prices any higher. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is planted in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good so far by private sources.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1225, 1212, and 1200 July and resistance is at 1292, 1310, and 1323 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed yesterday, with nearby months a little higher and new crop months a little lower as the market reacted to better planting weather in the Midwest. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast. The somewhat bullish USDA report released on Monday has had little effect on the price action so far this week. Demand for Corn in domestic and world markets remains strong with sales and shipments of above 1.6 million tons in the latest reporting week. It has become warmer and drier in much of the Midwest and planting progress is expected to be much improved this week. Oats were lower, and the trends are about unchanged in this market.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 July, and resistance is at 452, 459, and 463 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 332, and 326 July, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 362 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply lower and Soybean Oil was limit down yesterday, but Soybean Meal was a little higher. Uncertainty about the government support of bio fuels amid increased supplies of Crude Oil weighed on futures. Brazil prices remain below those from the US in world markets as basis levels dropped there in response to the tariff news between the US and China. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America. Warmer temperatures and wet conditions are expected this weekend.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1046, 1037, and 1027 July, and resistance is at 1082, 1088, and 1105 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4890, 4850, and 4730 July, with resistance at 5260, 5300, and 5360 July.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower yesterday in response to weakness in Soybean Oil. Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are still around. Chart trends are down. Canola was sharply lower yesterday on the [rice action in Chicgo and forecasts for improved planting and development conditions in the Prairies. Trends are turning mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canadian goods were exempted from the new round of tariffs but still must deal with the tariffs previously imposed by the US. The weather has generally been good for planting in the Prairies but it is too dry in some areas.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 686.00, 680.00, and 662.00 July, with resistance at 716.00, 735.00, and 738.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3840, 3770, and 3710 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions or isolated showers Temperatures should average near to below normal.
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