COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last yesterday in response to the Turmp-China tariff news and the monthly USDA supply and demand updates that left ending stocks for next year above trade expectations. There are still reports of better weather for planting in the southern US and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. More showers are in the forecast for the Great Plains. Planting progress is about the same as the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good. Demand is a concern after w week of poor export sales.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.74 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 65.70, and 65.10 July, with resistance of 69.10, 70.00 and 70.50 July.

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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday in response to the USDA reports and in response to news that Trump and China have pulled back from the brink in the tariff wars. USDA adjusted YUS and Florida production slightly higher than in previous estimates in its reports yesterday. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather abut also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 212.00, 200.00, and 188.00 July, with resistance at 255.00, 265.00, and 275.00 July.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.46 million tons, up slightly from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2023-2024 utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 11.6 million boxes (523,000 tons), is up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 36 percent from last season’s utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.58 million boxes (206,000 tons), down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 32 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.05 million boxes (317,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 38 percent from last season’s utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were sharply lower yesterday on news that the US and China have greatly reduced tariffs they are charging each other. This caused a major rally in the stock market and in the exchange rate of the US Dollar. Prices are still very high overall and reflect the report of tight supplies and the production concerns in Latin America for Arabica production. There are still ideas of good demand against ideas of less supplies available to the market. The lack of offers from Brazil continues even with the Robusta harvest started. Vietnam is done with its harvest. Hot and dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil longer term.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 335.49 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 13 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 406 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 363.00, 348.00, and 337.00 July, and resistance is at 385.00, 393.00 and 397.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4880, 4760, and 4640 July, with resistance at 5370, 5520, and 5550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on the Trump-China tariff news, and ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. Thai Sugar has moved to China lately and in volume. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and reports that India will have comfortable beginning stocks to help cushion the blow from reduced production for the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1740, 720, and 1690 July and resistance is at 1820, 1850, and 1880 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 493.00, 488.00, and 484.00 August, with resistance at 508.00, 513.00, and 521.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday as the Trump-China tariff news caused a major rally in the US Dollar and a new alignment in Cocoa futures. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and perhaps less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Trends are mixed in London and in New York but are trying to turn up even as demand ideas got hurt as the tariffs will increase costs to US buyers of chocolates. Demand ideas have been under pressure on the high prices currently seen for Cocoa due to bad production in West Africa. Cocoa imports are still subject to a 10% tariff at minimum.
Overnight News: ICE said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,088 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8900, 8400, and 8080 July, with resistance at 10080, 10450, and 10870 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6480, 6150, and 6050 July, with resistance at 7090, 6890, and 7090 July.

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