Image Source: DepositPhotos

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 102.2 101.4-102.5
Placed in Dec 95.4 91.5-98.0
Marketed in Dec 99.2 98.2-100.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.8 93.3 99.4
Allendale Inc. 102.2 97.5 100.7
HedgersEdge 102.1 93.3 98.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 102.4 97.9 99.4
Midwest Market Solutions 102.3 93.5 98.2
NFC Markets 102.3 96.7 99.4
Texas A&M Extension 102.5 98.0 99.4
US Commodities 101.4 91.5 99.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 19
For the week ended Jan 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 707.6 0.0 16100.9 15533.8 5913.2 200.4
hrw 107.3 0.0 2791.3 4255.0 846.8 25.6
srw 27.3 0.0 4352.1 2424.4 2383.9 90.8
hrs 281.3 0.0 5257.3 4704.0 1582.6 45.0
white 238.8 0.0 3286.1 3862.2 977.2 0.0
durum 53.0 0.0 414.1 288.1 122.8 39.0
corn 1251.1 20.0 31527.4 23128.3 17099.8 1092.7
soybeans 781.3 1.7 37387.9 45321.3 12159.2 155.3
soymeal 349.2 1.7 7562.7 6565.6 3834.3 8.4
soyoil 0.1 0.0 32.2 38.3 23.9 0.6
upland cotton 420.0 17.6 9306.0 9068.4 5548.7 683.3
pima cotton 3.5 0.6 194.8 125.7 57.6 3.3
sorghum 201.8 0.0 4267.9 550.0 1743.5 177.6
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.6 12.6 0.0
rice 110.0 0.0 2005.3 1096.7 797.7 0.0

Wheat

General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday in what appeared to be speculative short covering. The USDA reports on Friday were actually price positive and the advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage is expected. The big weakness in Soybeans caused weakness in Wheat as did a dismal export sales pace to date for US Wheat. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. However, Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 572 and 542 March. Support is at 577, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 594, 604, and 613 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 580 and 553 March. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 622, 637, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 689 March. Support is at 680, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 703, 713, and 720 March.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed lower in consolidation trading yesterday. \Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. However, it has been cold in the southern US this week and cash movement has been at a minimum. Futures are trying to complete a sideways formation with a move to higher prices and might have started on this quest on Friday. The market acts firm despite the USDA long grain reports as world data showed cuts to ending stocks levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1744, 1721, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1774, 1785, and 1814 March.

Corn & Oats

General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading as ideas of too much production for the demand in the US continue. Oats were higher on the cold and dry weather seen in northern areas and Canada. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 436 March. Support is at 440, 434, and 432 March, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 462 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 350, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 376, 393, and 402 March.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on what appeared to be speculative short covering. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this weekend. Soybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already.
Overnight News: China bought 297,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1200 March. Support is at 1203, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 135, 1252, and 1260 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 March, and resistance is at 370.00, 376.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4670, 4570, a6nd 4520 March, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5920 March.

Canola & Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with strength in Soybean Oil and idea of better demand. China has been a noted buyer recently. MPOB estimated production at 1.550 million tons, down 13.3% from November. Demand was also down, but ending stocks were estimated at 2.291 million tons, down 4.6%. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was higher in consolidation trading. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.

Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 615.00, 610.00, and 604.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3830, 3800, and 3770 April, with resistance at 3950, 4050, and 4130 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 860.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 722.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,960 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 252.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7145)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 69,213 lots, or 3.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,782 4,798 4,764 4,780 4,775 4,781 6 53,482 170,128
May-24 4,756 4,775 4,748 4,759 4,759 4,761 2 10,185 46,899
Jul-24 4,697 4,697 4,676 4,681 4,689 4,684 -5 3,596 17,072
Sep-24 4,665 4,676 4,658 4,663 4,673 4,667 -6 1,736 8,912
Nov-24 4,642 4,655 4,640 4,641 4,649 4,647 -2 90 269
Jan-25 4,637 4,640 4,628 4,630 4,643 4,637 -6 124 133
Corn
Turnover: 623,038 lots, or 1.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,327 2,335 2,306 2,311 2,316 2,319 3 58,498 203,482
May-24 2,352 2,366 2,339 2,343 2,346 2,352 6 476,173 883,759
Jul-24 2,380 2,390 2,369 2,374 2,374 2,380 6 61,281 251,791
Sep-24 2,391 2,397 2,380 2,383 2,390 2,388 -2 21,863 104,579
Nov-24 2,360 2,365 2,352 2,355 2,352 2,358 6 4,397 16,959
Jan-25 2,331 2,353 2,331 2,350 2,326 2,347 21 826 1,979
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,160,113 lots, or 35.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,170 3,224 3,141 3,177 3,188 3,177 -11 100,600 101,414
May-24 3,032 3,056 3,015 3,037 3,017 3,035 18 900,991 1,646,722
Jul-24 3,028 3,053 3,015 3,036 3,017 3,032 15 32,439 213,378
Aug-24 3,108 3,136 3,097 3,123 3,104 3,113 9 4,151 45,821
Sep-24 3,095 3,121 3,082 3,108 3,087 3,102 15 111,804 554,889
Nov-24 3,090 3,111 3,076 3,100 3,084 3,093 9 5,352 42,044
Dec-24 3,108 3,131 3,097 3,118 3,108 3,113 5 1,511 10,156
Jan-25 3,105 3,124 3,094 3,113 3,100 3,107 7 3,265 10,255
Palm Oil
Turnover: 663,749 lots, or 49.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,458 7,630 7,448 7,630 7,384 7,506 122 698 2,438
Mar-24 7,542 7,704 7,522 7,696 7,446 7,620 174 11,471 19,413
Apr-24 7,512 7,636 7,492 7,626 7,414 7,572 158 1,093 3,809
May-24 7,428 7,532 7,402 7,520 7,346 7,466 120 605,034 453,258
Jun-24 7,304 7,396 7,282 7,390 7,226 7,338 112 746 2,926
Jul-24 7,162 7,262 7,154 7,254 7,066 7,222 156 261 1,586
Aug-24 7,050 7,146 7,050 7,128 6,980 7,098 118 119 1,508
Sep-24 6,980 7,062 6,960 7,056 6,926 7,008 82 44,017 67,926
Oct-24 6,952 7,012 6,934 7,008 6,894 6,976 82 120 362
Nov-24 6,924 6,990 6,908 6,990 6,872 6,952 80 91 579
Dec-24 6,894 6,956 6,894 6,956 6,858 6,922 64 42 73
Jan-25 6,852 6,912 6,846 6,902 6,820 6,878 58 57 120
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 647,925 lots, or 48.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,754 7,876 7,720 7,870 7,700 7,806 106 6,179 19,222
May-24 7,498 7,624 7,454 7,612 7,448 7,540 92 580,181 580,024
Jul-24 7,420 7,530 7,382 7,512 7,378 7,460 82 4,327 25,665
Aug-24 7,394 7,492 7,358 7,476 7,344 7,440 96 869 12,473
Sep-24 7,360 7,456 7,324 7,446 7,310 7,400 90 54,968 97,191
Nov-24 7,342 7,418 7,302 7,410 7,280 7,382 102 1,139 4,268
Dec-24 7,350 7,432 7,332 7,420 7,338 7,396 58 90 1,214
Jan-25 7,306 7,368 7,292 7,360 7,282 7,332 50 172 314
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

More By This Author: