WHEAT 

General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower again yesterday as tensions between the West and Russia eased and as Mr. Putin said he would not do anything during the Olympics. Futures were also lower on the stronger US Dollar.  The Dollar moved to new highs for the move and could now trade to 100.00 on the March Dollar Index.  Russia has been escalating the crisis to test the US and NATO resolve and war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine.  The US and Russia are talking and Russia has said it will not do anything during the Olympics.  The weekly export sales report was strong and featured a markeing year high in sales.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.  North Africa is very dry.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.  Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 771, 758, and 747 March, with resistance at 803, 824, and 831 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 786, 775, and 761 March, with resistance at 819, 829, and 849 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 910 and 875 March.  Support is at 895, 871, and 853 March, and resistance is at 904, 930, and 945 March.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE:                                                 

General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday but trends are still mostly up in the market.  The US Dollar moved sharply higher and made new highs for the move.  It has the potential to trade to 100.00 on the Dollar Index.  The weekly export sales report showed much higher sales levels than previous weeks.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling but some are selling the current crop and generating some needed revenue.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1483, 1471, and 1466 March and resistance is at 1523, 1536, and 1550 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday as the US Dollar moved sharply higher.  The Dollar moved to new highs for the move and could now trade to 100.00 on the March Dollar Index. The weekly export sales report showed strong demand for US Corn.  The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain.  Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.  Ukraine is a major Corn and Wheat ex[porter and the market fears that a disruption in the export pace from there could mean more demand here.  Russia has eased tensions by indicating that nothing will happen until the Olympics end but the market is still watching.

Overnight News:  China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans and Mexico bought 141,514 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 632 and 647 March.  Support is at 615, 611, and 604 March, and resistance is at 630, 636, and 642 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 640, 616, and 601 March, and resistance is at 666, 677, and 680 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on news that the Parana state Ag agency had drastically cut back nits production estimate for Soybeans in the state.  Yields were reduced and production was reduced by more than 5%.  Mato Grosso do Sul did the same thing yesterday.  The data implies total Brtazil production at 125 million tons to 127 million tons according to at least some analysts here in the US.  Production ideas at ther beginning of the crop season were closer to 150 million tons for Brazil so the cuts are drastic and imply much more demand for US Soybeans down the road.  Rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue this week. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina.  Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina late this week.  There are ideas of better demand for US Soybeans due to the crop losses that Brazil and Argentina have already incurred due to the drought and due in part to the situation between Ukraine and Russia that could hurt agricultural and energy exports from both countries.  New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor.  China has now been a buyer for two days this week.  Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1486 March.  Support is at 1430, 1414, and 1394 March, and resistance is at 1456, 1470, and 1482 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 417.00 and 444.00 March.   Support is at 396.00, 388.00, and 385.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00 415.00, and 420.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6540 and 6790 March.  Support is at 6300, 6180, and 6120 March, with resistance at 6500, 6620, and 6740 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was sharply higher yesterday in sympathy with the outside markets and on ideas of low supplies.  Short covering was noted.  Crude Oil was higher.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was higher in range trading.  Support came from the rally in Chicago.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 998.00, 983.00, and 977.00 March, with resistance at 1026.00, 1038.00, and 1040.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 5530 and 5710 March.  Support is at 5290, 5040, and 4980 April, with resistance at 5560, 5680, and 5800 April.