Grains Report - Friday, Aug. 18

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and trends remain down on the daily charts as the war between Russia and Ukraine and demand for US Wheat remained the features. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 559 September. Support is at 582, 576, and 570 September, with resistance at 602, 622, and 626 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 721 and 690 September. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 786 and 761 September. Support is at 785, 778, and 772 September, and resistance is at 811, 818, and 836 September.

selective focus photo of plant

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday in consolidation trading, and trends remain down on the daily charts as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. USDA showed that crop progress was a little ahead of the five year average and that crop condition deteriorated slightly from last week and remains a little behind the quality of last year. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1553, 1536, and 1529 September and resistance is at 1578, 1590, and 1600 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on weather concerns. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ide2s are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1112,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 461 and 442 September. Support is at 462, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 413, and 400 September, and resistance is at 443, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher. Weather forecasts call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for the next few weeks after some rain in the Midwest Monday. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1320, 1303, and 1289 September, and resistance is at 1353, 1370, and 1376 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 387.00 September. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 383.00 September, and resistance is at 404.00, 412.00, and 423.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6700 and 7050 September. Support is at 6550, 6440, and 6310 September, with resistance at 6910, 7000, and 7120 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the private export data released a couple of days ago was strong and on strength in Chicago Soybean Oil. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 807.00, 816.00, and 835.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4020 and 4160 November. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Wednesday, Aug. 16
Grains Report - Tuesday, Aug. 15
Softs Report - Friday, July 28

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