Grains Report - Tuesday, Aug. 15

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General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts as the war between Russia and Ukraine calmed again and as some rain was reported in the Great Plains. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 597 and 559 September. Support is at 605, 688, and 682 September, with resistance at 626, 643, and 664 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 721 and 690 September. Support is at 733, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 786 and 761 September. Support is at 801, 793, and 8778 September, and resistance is at 918, 836, and 843 September.

General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday, and trends turned down on the daily charts as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1560 and 1530 September. Support is at 1557, 1553, and 1536 September and resistance is at 1590, 1600, and 1620 September.

General Comments: Corn was a little higher again yesterday after trading lower for much of the day. Weather forecasts that remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks after some rains today. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Russia has bombed the port of Odessa this week and also attacked facilities along the Danube River in an effort to keep Ukraine from exporting. Ukraine can still export over land via the EU but this entails additional costs. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 461 and 442 September. Support is at 468, 465, and 462 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 413, 400, and 398 September, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 452 September.

General Comments: Soybeans were higher on weather forecasts that call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for the next few weeks after some rain in the Midwest today. Soybean Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was higher. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1326, 1303, and 1271 September, and resistance is at 1370, 1376, and 1401 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 410.00, 400.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 423.00, 424.00, and 435.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6310, 6210, and 6140 September, with resistance at 6560, 6680, and 6910 September.

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today after a moderate range day as the private export data was strong. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 746.00 and 717.00 November. Support is at 754.00, 742.00, and 729.00 November, with resistance at 775.00, 793.00, and 800.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3680, 3650, and 3540 November, with resistance at 3820, 3900, and 3960 November.

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