Image Source: Pixabay
 

Week chart

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There are several scenarios 1. Red. The whole movement has ended since the end of 2015, a deep correction begins (most likely below 1689).2. Black. Completed only 1 in (5) in ((5)). There will be a rollback of 2, but not below the minimum (4) 3. Has not yet been completed (4). There may be a variant of a triangle, a flat correction, and other correction models. The nearest important level is 1800 and trending.
 

Day chart

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I am now waiting for a deeper decline below 1900. The variant lower 1689 is preferable for me but We shouldn’t be in a hurry to get confirmation of which pattern ( correction or impulse ) has been shown. 

There are many fundamental factors that prove my suggestion. First of all, is sentiment. At the beginning of May all investors, and experts anticipated the “skyrocket rise”. They explained their view by providing a lot of “proof” like inflation, gold being a quiet harbor, etc. Let’s talk about inflation. The economic theory says: credit expansion leads to deflationary collapse. The Fed was printing money in 2020, the balance sheet was enlarged more than 2 times. Unprecedented tightening in history has been starting since 2022. We can now see the result in PPI (producer prices) in Germany, Canada, and Spain. PPI is a leading indicator for CPI ( consumer prices) and easy to understand the outcome will happen. Deflation collapse is a more precise term circulated in mass media “recession”. 

Let’s look at charts that uncover the gold behavior during recession. 

2008-2009

2020

Conclusion: The reversal forecast is currently being implemented, the main goals and important levels of cancellation and confirmation are marked on the charts. The minimum of the annual cycle was at the beginning of November last year, so most likely we will fall until mid-autumn, plus or minus a few weeks.

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