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Gold prices have held firm despite recent global developments. Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a marginal pullback, reflecting slight pressure from recent market developments. Markets are reacting to key macroeconomic events, including a potential UK-US trade deal and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance. These events shape the outlook for the precious metal, offering insights into where prices might head next.
 

Gold Sees Shallow Pullback amid Trade Deal Hype and Fed Policy Uncertainty

The global gold market continues to respond to geopolitical and macroeconomic cues. Reports have emerged that US President Donald Trump is set to announce a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. According to sources, the deal is described as “full and comprehensive” and is scheduled for announcement at a news conference in Washington. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times have confirmed that the UK side is ready to unveil the agreement as well.

The anticipation of this trade deal has created a risk-on environment in markets. Investors have started shifting from safe-haven assets like gold into equities and riskier instruments. Nevertheless, gold's pullback has been shallow, highlighting resilient underlying demand.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.50% adds another layer to gold’s fundamental support. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that while the economy remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and policy remains a major concern. The Fed's pause signals that rate cuts are unlikely before summer, offering a slight edge to the US Dollar, which typically pressures gold.

Despite this, hedge funds remain bullish. Waratah Capital Advisors, for instance, has publicly stated that it has increased its allocation to gold. The firm is betting on higher prices amid global trade tensions. This indicates that institutional interest in gold remains strong.
 

Technical Analysis: Gold Breaks Decades-Long Resistance

The gold chart below shows a major breakout above its historical long-term resistance. The black line on the chart represents a decades-long resistance trend line stretching from the early 1980s peak. Gold has decisively broken through this line, currently trading well above both the $2,200 and $2,800 levels, which previously served as major resistance points.

Two notable breakout zones are highlighted in orange. The first is around $2,200, where gold broke out of a multi-year cup formation—a classical bullish pattern. The second breakout occurred above $2,800, reinforcing the strength of this upward move.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The chart also shows a steady build-up before these breakouts, with a rounded bottom pattern forming between 2013 and 2019. This formation often precedes powerful uptrends, which are playing out now. The price action confirms the long-term bullish trajectory.

Gold's monthly close above the long-term resistance line signals a potential shift into a new price regime. Should this trend hold, the next significant psychological and technical resistance levels lie between $3,800 and $4,200. Momentum indicators remain supportive on the longer time frame, though short-term corrections like the current dip to $3,340 are normal in any bullish trend.
 

Conclusion

Gold remains in an uptrend despite recent market shifts. The Fed’s steady rate stance and ongoing global uncertainty support long-term bullish momentum. Technical breakouts confirm strength, and institutional interest is growing. Short-term dips appear temporary. The broader trend still points higher. Traders should watch key support levels for potential entry points. Volatility is likely to persist as macro drivers evolve. 

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