Energy Speculators Push Heating Oil Bets Higher For 6th Week To 42-Week High

 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data (Week 33) is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 33 – Heating Oil bets rise for 6th week

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (4,508 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (4,289 contracts), Gasoline (2,163 contracts) and Heating Oil (462 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-1,801 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-231 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil speculator contracts edged higher this week and rose for a sixth straight week. Speculator positions are now in bullish territory for the twelfth week after turning from bearish to bullish on May 31st. These increases have pushed the Heating Oil speculator standing to just about +25,000 contracts and to the highest level since October 26th of 2021, a span of forty-two weeks.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

WTI Crude 1,557,349 0 214,940 1 -239,291 100 24,351 48
Corn 1,316,462 1 220,129 58 -166,318 48 -53,811 12
Natural Gas 983,460 5 -120,911 42 82,862 57 38,049 70
Sugar 737,535 7 49,970 47 -61,837 56 11,867 23
Soybeans 595,095 5 83,183 39 -51,650 68 -31,533 18
Gold 453,960 0 141,164 19 -153,709 84 12,545 4
Wheat 313,237 11 -1,908 17 7,448 70 -5,540 82
Heating Oil 296,987 34 24,926 79 -40,022 29 15,096 51
Coffee 190,302 0 33,471 68 -35,318 37 1,847 16
Copper 183,500 17 -28,220 22 28,932 79 -712 21
Brent 176,902 21 -36,012 51 34,290 50 1,722 33
Silver 144,314 11 3,508 10 -12,451 90 8,943 12
Platinum 57,254 17 2,940 12 -6,361 90 3,421 10
Palladium 7,951 7 -1,599 14 1,536 83 63 48

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (79.1 percent) leads the energy currently and is up a bit from last week’s score of 78.4 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores. On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) and Gasoline (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (53.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.9 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.5 percent)
Heating Oil (79.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (27.1 percent) is getting the most love from speculators lately and leads the past six weeks trends for energy. Gasoline (19.7 percent), Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) and Natural Gas (2.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Natural Gas (2.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.2 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (13.4 percent)
Heating Oil (27.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (24.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-20.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 214,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.3 41.0 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 56.4 3.5
– Net Position: 214,940 -239,291 24,351
– Gross Longs: 346,865 638,971 78,715
– Gross Shorts: 131,925 878,262 54,364
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.1 99.7 48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.3 17.5 0.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.7 50.8 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.0 31.4 3.1
– Net Position: -36,012 34,290 1,722
– Gross Longs: 33,017 89,828 7,241
– Gross Shorts: 69,029 55,538 5,519
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.8 50.3 32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -5.0 7.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT Chart

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -120,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.3 42.2 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.6 33.8 3.0
– Net Position: -120,911 82,862 38,049
– Gross Longs: 170,133 415,171 67,826
– Gross Shorts: 291,044 332,309 29,777
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 57.0 70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -2.9 -1.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT Chart

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 48.1 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.0 68.3 6.0
– Net Position: 47,669 -52,630 4,961
– Gross Longs: 81,394 124,919 20,499
– Gross Shorts: 33,725 177,549 15,538
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.7 80.9 45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.7 -19.1 1.9

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT Chart

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.5 52.1 13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.1 65.6 8.7
– Net Position: 24,926 -40,022 15,096
– Gross Longs: 46,048 154,772 41,070
– Gross Shorts: 21,122 194,794 25,974
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.1 28.6 50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -18.4 -4.1

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT Chart

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.0 75.0 0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.3 56.2 0.1
– Net Position: -12,887 12,595 292
– Gross Longs: 15,330 50,098 339
– Gross Shorts: 28,217 37,503 47
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 7.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.2 41.7 21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.7 20.6 1.9

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


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