Gold Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold has been pulling back after reaching a fresh record high on March 20, 2025. However, this corrective phase appears temporary, and buyers may soon find new opportunities. The bullish cycle that started in November 2024 remains intact, with expectations of further upside before the next major retracement.

Gold Daily Chart Analysis

The attached daily chart highlights gold’s long-term bullish trend. The market completed wave (2) in October 2023, initiating wave (3), which has been advancing steadily. This impulsive structure is still unfolding, and the current wave count suggests that wave (3) has room for one final push higher.

A closer look at the subwaves within wave (3) indicates that it is in the final stages of development. Specifically, wave ((v)) of 5 of (3) remains incomplete, requiring another upward leg before wave (3) can be considered finished. Once this final push materializes, a corrective wave (4) pullback should follow before the last rally toward the completion of wave I, which began in December 2015.

Gold H4 Chart Analysis

On the H4 timeframe, the decline from March 20, 2025, appears to be wave (iv) of ((v)) of 5 of (3). This wave structure aligns with typical fourth-wave retracements, which often find support between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Shallower corrections may halt within the 23.6%–38.2% range.

The first leg of the pullback unfolded in a three-wave corrective structure, followed by a corrective bounce, suggesting a potential double correction scenario. If this count holds, gold is likely to complete its wave (iv) correction in the 2988.9–2967.9 Fibonacci zone. This area could attract fresh buying interest, setting the stage for a rally in wave (v) toward new highs.

Traders should watch for bullish signals near this support zone, as the larger uptrend remains intact. A confirmed reversal from this area could provide a favorable risk-reward opportunity for trend continuation traders.

Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo

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