Elliott Wave Analysis: WTI Crude Oil

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WTI Elliott wave analysis 

Function - Counter-trend 

Mode - Corrective 

Structure - Zigzag 

Position - Wave (iii) of 1

Direction - Wave (iii) of 1 still in play

Details - We discussed two scenarios in the last update. After 84 was breached, we can confirm wave (B) has ended. Now we need further confirmation with the current decline ending impulse. With the speed of this decline, it will most likely be, barring any surprises. Thus, the bearish impulse for wave 1 is underway.

WTI has undergone a notable decline of almost 7% since reaching its 2024 peak in August. This descent appears rapid and impulsive, suggesting the possible conclusion of the four-month bullish correction or perhaps a corrective phase within it. The former scenario seems more plausible, especially when considering the alignment with price movements on higher time frames. From a long-term perspective, the commodity is in the process of correcting the significant impulse wave from April 2020 to March 2022, which marked its resilience against the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This correction commenced in March 2022 and is still ongoing, with projections indicating a potential further decline to the range of $46-50.

Analyzing the daily chart, we can discern the entirety of the correction, identifying a double zigzag structure denoted as the blue wave W-X-Y. Waves W and X concluded at 64.5 and 95, respectively. Currently, wave Y (marked in blue circles) is unfolding downward, displaying a zigzag pattern. Wave (A) of Y terminated at 67.81, followed by a surge for wave (B), seemingly completing a double zigzag at 87.67. This implies the likelihood of witnessing another zigzag or double zigzag for (C) of blue Y, indicating a probable breach of the 64.5 low in the long term. Failure to do so may still result in at least a three-wave dip to 75. Moving forward, the focus will be on monitoring the ongoing bearish reaction, with close attention paid to developments on the H4 chart.

Turning to the H4 chart, anticipation centers on a downward impulse to complete wave 1 or A, possibly even to fulfill the initial sub-waves of 1 or A. The specific degree of these waves may not hold significant relevance at this juncture; instead, the emphasis lies on the current price structure. Should the price conform to the expected bearish impulse, a subsequent corrective bounce is anticipated, offering a potentially favorable entry point for selling. As long as the price remains below 87.63, expectations lean towards further declines in the near term.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

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