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At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.17%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.18%. The three major US stock indices ended mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed a fresh batch of corporate earnings and lingering concerns over tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. President Trump said China should return to the negotiating table to ease tariffs, emphasizing the importance of US consumer demand. Markets rose on Monday on hopes of a pause in tariffs on automobiles and exemptions for some technology goods. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department has begun inspecting imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, signaling that new tariffs may be imposed.

Canada’s annualized inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 2.3% from an eight-month high of 2.6% in the previous month, below market expectations, which had expected inflation to remain at 2.6%, and below the Central Bank’s projections of 2.5%. The decline marked the beginning of a normalization of the Bank of England’s inflation prognoses for this year, after the end of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Harmonized Tax (HST) exemptions in the middle of last month caused core inflation to rise 0.6 percentage points. Gasoline prices declined (-1.6% vs. 5.1% in February) amid an aggressive fall in crude oil prices after OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase production, leading to a slowdown in transportation inflation (1.2% vs. 3%).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.86% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.41%. European equities closed solidly higher on Tuesday, extending last session’s sharp gains, after the prospect that the US may suspend the imposition of tariffs on cars and parts supported key sectors of the European economy.

WTI crude oil prices slipped toward $61 a barrel amid signs of weakening demand and a potential supply glut. The International Energy Agency sharply lowered its demand expectations for 2025, warning that the global glut could persist until 2026. OPEC and EIA also lowered their estimates due to slowing growth, trade tensions, and lower fuel consumption. Trump’s tariff war has raised concerns about slowing global growth, especially in the US and China, major oil consumers.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.17%.

The Reuters Tankan Sentiment Index for manufacturers in Japan jumped to positive 9 in April 2025 from negative 1 in March, the highest reading since August last year. Despite favorable current sentiment, the outlook for the next three months has deteriorated due to growing concerns over US trade policy. The index is expected to fall to zero as Japan prepares to impose 10% tariffs on US exports and 25% tariffs on automobiles. Export-oriented industries, especially automobile and machinery, are bracing for falling orders and rising customer caution.

China’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in the fourth quarter and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. This was the highest annualized growth rate in the past 1.5 years amid Beijing’s continued economic stimulus. China’s industrial production in March 2025 grew 7.7% y/y, exceeding market expectations of 5.6% and accelerating from the 5.9% growth recorded in January-February. This was the strongest growth in industrial production since June 2021. In addition, retail sales posted the fastest growth since December 2023 and beat market projections. On the labor side, the unemployment rate declined in March 2025 from the two-year high recorded in the previous month. These positive results were largely underpinned by ongoing stimulus policies aimed at strengthening the Chinese economy. Despite the positive data, escalating trade tensions between the US and China are clouding the outlook. Recently, US President Trump launched an investigation into new tariffs on imports of key minerals that are largely sourced from China, raising fresh concerns.

India’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 3.34% from 3.61% in the previous month, well below market expectations for an unchanged rate, and marked the fifth consecutive slowdown in inflation to its lowest level since August 2019. The decline pushed inflation further below the Reserve Bank of India’s average target of 4%.

• S&P 500 (US500) 5,396.63 −9.34 (−0.17%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 40,368.96 −155.83 (−0.38%)
• DAX (DE40) 21,253.70 +298.87 (+1.43%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,249.12 +114.78 (+1.41%)
• USD Index 100.15 +0.51 (+0.51%)
   

News feed for: 2025.04.16

• China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• Canada Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

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