MAY CORN

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May Corn – after being held hostage for several weeks – in anticipation of the USDA Stocks/Seeding 3-28-24 Report – exploded last Thursday for a 15-cent gain as both acres – 90 MA (ly – 94.64) & stocks – 8.347 BB (exp – 8.427) were under expectations! However, the mkt was unable to follow-thru up Mon & today due general trader skepticism about the low 90 million acre # & general demand concerns emanating from the bird flu issue! As well, very supportive Macro Tailwinds have emerged in the form of record Gold prices & surging crude oil prices – validating a strong US economy! A rising tide, indeed, floats all boats!

MAY BEANS

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Despite recent bearish reports, May Beans are posting double-digit gains today – to remain firmly entrenched in the tight consolidation pattern they’ve been in for the past month! The Stocks/Seeding USDA Report was neutral/bearish with an expected 3 million acre increase at 86.51 MA & slightly higher stocks – 1.845 BB (exp-1.828)! Monday inspections were a marketing year low at 414 MT, Brazil harvest is 75% in & the US $ is the highest since November! However, biofuel demand is quite high – underpinning the mkt! And strong oil & gold prices underpin the mkt – same as May Corn! The net is a mkt continuing to sideways trade awaiting US planting weather & progress & further South American Crop updates!

MAY WHT

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For the past month, May Wht has been locked in a tight trading pattern (530-570) a neutral/unfriendly USDA Report last Thursday reflected stocks – 1.087 BB (exp – 1.044) & planting – 47.45 MA (exp-47.33, ly – 49.57)! The 1^st Crop Conditions Report of the year reported good-excellent – 56% (ly – 28%) – as expected! Recent rains have helped alleviate dryness in the Central Plains! Yet despite these negatives, the mkt remains range-bound – indicating it may be cheap enough – as many of us have long felt! New exports & spill-over support from Corn & Beans could spark a rally!

JUNE CAT

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A down-move originally ignited by a 10% placement # in the March Cattle-on-Feed report – was further exacerbated yesterday by a knee-jerk massive fund liquidation of longs in response to the Bird Flu Outbreak! Worries mounted for a  large drop-off in meat demand – resulting in a $5.00 plummet in futures on Mon & new lows for the break in June Cattle! We feel the break is overdone & look for the mkt to stabilize from here! The $10 drop off the highs is probably enough with the Spring Grilling Season almost upon us – which is, of course, the best “demand period” of the year!

JUNE HOGS

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There’s an old commodity cliché that “CATTLE PAIN EQUALS HOG GAIN” and yesterday’s mkt action perfectly personifies that! June Cattle plummeted $5.00 due to Bird Flu demand worries & June Hogs surged $2.00 on the perception that lost cattle demand would translate into additional hog demand! As a result, June Hogs forged new highs for its up-move! With the “grilling season” soon starting, this “demand shift” could be punctuated into the Spring Months!

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