AgMaster Report - Monday, March 18


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May Corn is consolidating its 30-cent rally since Feb 26 as it awaits the USDA quarterly Stocks/Acreage Intentions Report due out on Thur 3-28-24 at 11 am! Mkt tailwinds include lower corn acreage, 35% more exports than 2023, Cheapness – just over $4.00, positive technicals & an abnormally warm & dry winter maybe extending into June-Aug! These have been offset by mkt headwinds including rain in S/A & the Midwest & harvest pressure from Brazil! The $2.00 plus break since last Summer looks to have dialed in the former bearish fundamentals! There is no margin for error in the event of a substandard US Crop!


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Much like its sister mkt May Corn, May Bean is also consolidating its recent 90-cent rally since the end of Feb. The nearly $3.00 break since last Summer has factored in the double whammy of adequate stocks/slack demand! Intermittent Brazilian rains & still soft exports have kept the lid on recent rallies while the best-ever Feb Crush & cold, planting-delaying climes have underpinned the breaks! A price level of $12.00 – not $13.00 or 14.00 is a feather in the bull’s hat & could be the base of substantial rallies – should our very warm & dry winter extend into the planting & growing seasons!


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As if Wht didn’t have enough issues, recent cancellation of Chinese orders of US Wht kept the mkt under wraps but wasn’t able to force new contract lows! Also pressuring the mkt were rains in the Southern plains! However, offsetting these negatives were Russian attacks on the Odessa port & below normal temps in the northern Plains! This netted out to a sideways pattern (530-550) – similar to corn & beans recent trading ranges.  Wht is certainly cheap enough to bottom out but will need some exports to appear & not get cancelled! As well, spillover from corn/bean rallies would help!! Finally, wht is also waiting on the momentous USDA Report on stocks & seedings next Thur 3-28-24!


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Apl Cat has performed like the quintessential trading range it is! Last week, it closed at 190 – the top end of its recent range. Then – the very next day – it closed at 187 – the bottom end of its range! Then , back up today off strong cash & lower slaughter than 2023 however, with very tight supplies & solid demand into the Easter W/E & the coming “grilling season”, the breaks – no matter how extreme – seem to be short-lived! A quick glance at the above chart speaks volumes! When the mkt isn’t going up, it’s hugging the highs – never straying more than $2-3 off them! The seasonals are up & they will be validated soon as we morph into the grilling season – the best demand period of the year!


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Much like its sister mkt Apl Cat, Apl Hogs is also range-bound – albeit a much broader one! The contract broke $5.00 in the past 3 weeks – only to rally back $4.00 since last week! Pork cut-out is the highest it’s been since early October & the seasonals are up going into the grilling season! Hog slaughter & pork production are down over 2023! Hog fundamentals aren’t as strong as cattle but the mkt will benefit from continued strength in its neighbor – in spillover fashion! Finally, the charts are friendly with higher highs & higher lows since the mkt bottomed on Jan 2!

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AgMaster Report - Tuesday, March, 12
AgMaster Report - Monday, Feb. 5
AgMaster Report - Wednesday, Jan. 31

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