Market Analysis

This year’s Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour data highlighted the potential difference in 2021’s corn and soybean production across the 7 tour states sampled each year. With the USDA’s August ECB corn yield forecasted substantially higher than their previous yearly records, the tour’s average corn yield samples were records for OH, IN, and IL. In contrast, SD & MN tour corn yield levels were off sharply while IA & NE had modestly higher yields than last year. After a generally timely planting season, 2021’s dry Western Midwest vs the Eastern US’s adequate to excessive moisture has produced a yield difference across the US. However, the nightly tour wrap-up comments emphasized the need for immediate rains in each state so their output ideas could occur after 2020’s late dryness hurt yields.

Looking at corn’s main yield component—ear count, PF’s 2021 ear population per acre rose in 5 of the 7 states vs. 2020. This was led by 5.5 ear jump in IA. Interestingly, 4 states (IL, IN, OH, NE) had 3-5 higher ear counts, but only NE had a record 2021 ear level. This year’s kernel rows averaged near 16 like recent years, but 2021’s ear length declined in 4 states (IL, NE, MN, SD) lead by a 1-inch drop in SD. Over the past 20 years, the USDA’s final yields in the 7 tour states have had some usual differences because not all areas being sampled in each state. This has prompted higher MN & SD tour yields than USDA estimate and a lower NE (irrigation) tour yield while the other 4 states have had a closer yield relationship. Because of strong yield ideas in southern IL & IN and drought in northern SD (adjusting state ests), the PF tour final yield was placed at 177 bu vs USDA’s August 174.6 level. They also upped corn’s harvested acres by 900,000 because of the August FSA report producing 15.12 billion bu. 2021 crop.

This year’s tour pod counts are mixed with 4 of 7 states (NE, MN, IN & SD) down from 2020. Despite the next 30- 40 days impacting US seed size and pod numbers, Pro Farmer is optimistic projecting a 51.2 bu US yield (+1.2) resulting in a 4.44 billion bu US soybean crop.

What’s Ahead:

The Pro Farmer crop data provided some perspective on 2021 corn crop size & the relative potential of the US soybean crop. To reach their fullest output, both crops need a widespread rain event very soon according to the crop scouts. Lackluster export demand has added to the sluggish tone ahead of harvest. Hold new-crop corn & bean sales at 20-25%. Up 2021 wheat sales to 50% on WZ push to $7.40-50.