My previous BTC/USD signal last Wednesday was not triggered, as there was no bullish bounce when the support level at $67,475 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

(Click on image to enlarge) 

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $68,243 or $67,088.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $69,526 or $70,625.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on Wednesday last week that the price was in a medium-term symmetrical bullish price channel, which was a bullish sign. I was looking for the price to get established above $70,625. This was not an especially good call, although it was enough to keep anyone out of trouble as the price never reached $70,625.

The technical picture now is a medium-term bullish wedge pattern, with the price basing off a gently ascending trend line which is quite confluent with the horizontal support level at $68,088. On the other hand, the price has been making lower highs for almost three weeks.

I think Bitcoin is stuck within this wedge pattern and there are two scenarios to watch out for:

1. The price gets established above $69,526. This will be a weakly bullish sign. Once the price is above $70,625 that would be a very bullish sign.
2. The price breaks down below the ascending trend line at about $66,700. This will be a bearish sign.

You might trade such breakouts or breakdowns using two consecutive hourly closes.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.

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