My previous BTC/USD signal yesterday was not triggered, as the bullish price action took place a little way below the support level which I had identified at $67,475.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75% per trade.
• Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $67,699, $65,832, or $64,620.
• Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $68,243, $69,111, or $70,625.
• Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis yesterday that the confluence of support around $67,500 with the lower trend line of the rising price channel, key horizontal support, and a quarter-number all converging there gave a potential long trade entry opportunity.

The price has now reached that area, but does not seem to have particularly respected it, notably the supportive trend line which looks broken within the price chart above. However, the price did not break below this area, so a significant rise from here with the earlier lows holding is still a very realistic scenario.

The relevant support level has been adjusted higher, to $67,699.

The problem now for bulls is the new resistance level which is very close by overhead at $68,243. This seems to have just produced a new bearish move down within just the past few hours.

I would wait either for the price to be making hourly closes below $67,000 for a bearish bias, or above $68,243 for a bullish bias.

I expect that the bearish scenario will be more likely, especially if Preliminary US GDP data shows annualised growth above 1.2%.

Regarding the US Dollar, there will be releases of Preliminary US GDP data and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Pending Home Sales at 3pm.

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