Bullish view

• Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 54,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 54,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 60,000.

(Click on image to enlarge) 

The BTC/USD pair remained in a tight range as the financial market reacted to the latest consumer inflation data. Bitcoin was trading at $57,580, higher than Wednesday’s low of $55,485. It was also higher than last Friday’s low of $52,565.

Bitcoin has had a few catalysts in the past few days. Data shows that the amount of coins in exchanges has dropped to the lowest level in years. This means that many holders have a long-term approach.

In most cases, Bitcoin tends to drop when supply in exchanges is rising. For example, Bitcoin fell in July as the German government and Mt. Gox dumped thousands of coins in exchanges.

Another likely catalyst for Bitcoin is that the rising stablecoin figures, especially Tether and USD Coin. Tether’s market cap has jumped to over $113 billion while USD Coin has jumped to $35 billion.

Stablecoin inflows are important because they are the currencies that people use to buy cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin with.

Bitcoin’s price action mirrored that of stocks, which initially dropped after the US inflation report, bounced back. The Dow Jones rose by 0.20% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose by over 1.80%.

The economic numbers showed that the headline inflation dropped to 2.5% in August while the core CPI remained at 3.2%. While these numbers are higher than the Fed target of 2.0%, the bank will likely decide to cut rates next week because of the labor market.

Recent data showed that the labor market is softening a bit, with the jobless rate stuck above 4% and the size of NFP downward revisions rise.

BTC/USD technical analysis

The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. In this period, it has remained below the key resistance point at 60,000 and the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The two averages are about to form a death cross chart pattern, which often leads to more downside.

Bitcoin has also moved slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also formed a double-bottom pattern around the 53,600 level.

Therefore, the BTC/USD price will likely rise and retest the 200-day moving average level at 59,290. The alternative scenario is where the pair drops and retests the key support at 53,600.

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