Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6750.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6685.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 0.6700 and a take-profit at 0.6680.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6750.

  (Click on image to enlarge)

The AUD/USD pair pulled back after the latest Australian services PMI and GDP numbers. It retreated to a low of 0.6685, its lowest swing since August 19 and over 2% below its highest point last month.

Mixed Australian economic data

The AUD/USD pair retreated after the latest Australian services PMI report. In a report, the services PMI rose from 50.4 in July to 52.5 in August, higher than the median estimate of 52.2.

The report signals that the country’s services sector is growing at a faster rate than the manufacturing industry.

A separate report showed that the GDP rose by 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis and by 1.0% on an annual basis. This growth was mostly because of consumer spending, which growth expanded by 0.3% and was offset by a drop in capital expenditure.

The RBA has been the most hawkish central bank this year, insisting that it may hike interest rates this year. In a statement on Thursday morning, Governor Michelle Bullock said that the bank was still concerned by the stubbornly high.

Analysts expect that the bank will maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.35% throughout the year and start cutting in the first quarter of 2025. However, the bank may decide to hike if the unemployment rate deteriorates and reaches about 4.5%.

The AUD/USD pair also reacted to the latest US economic numbers. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job openings retreated from 7.91 million in June to 7.67 million in July, missing the estimated 8.09 million.

The key data to watch on Thursday will be the ADP private sector report. The figure is expected to show that the economy added 143k jobs in August, higher than the previous 122k. Also, ISM will publish the non-manufacturing PMI data followed by the official NFP numbers on Friday.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD exchange rate bottomed at 0.6348 in August and staged a strong comeback, peaking at 0.6822 as the US dollar eased. On the 4H chart, the pair has slipped below the important support level at 0.6800, its highest point in July.

It remains between the lower and middle lines of the widened Bollinger Bands indicator. The current retreat is part of the cup and handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bullish trend as long as it remains above this week’s low of 0.6685. A break below that level will raise the possibility of the pair falling to the next key support at 0.6650.

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