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The short-term uptrend continues, although only the indicators such as the PMO give the trend the appearance of an upward direction.

It was a tough week to be a trader. Last week I was optimistic that we had the start of a decent summer rally, but then there was Tuesday. That was a rough day. Trading short-term uptrends is difficult right now, so I'm likely to avoid long positions and pick my short spots carefully.

All three major indexes have closed below their respective 5-day averages four days in a row, although Friday's session had a strong close. This isn't what I like to see because there is no real trend. It is just choppy price action.

This chart maps the price of the index with the PMO index, and it looks as though the current short-term uptrend, as shown by the PMO, is actually just a very oversold bounce. The sharp sell-off in early June resulted in a weak upward retrace that continues to play out. 

The bullish percents looked like they were starting to give us another sell signal on Thursday, but now it just looks like sideways action. These bullish percents are still at very low levels.

The momentum indicator of the inverted VIX continues to point the market higher in the short-term, however, the inverted VIX itself isn't exactly convincing. 

The 52-week new lows are way above levels where you could expect prices to move convincingly higher. This really seems like the only indicator you need right now, it trumps all the others. The number of new lows has to drop way down (and stay down) to harmless levels in order to see the indexes trend higher.

I've been shorting Europe via an inverse ETF, and for a few weeks the Europe ETF had found support before it bounced back into a sideways pattern. So the Europe short ETF hasn't been profitable since early June, but I feel pretty confident that soon it will be.

I've also been shorting the gold miners via an inverse ETF, and this week there was some success as the miners dropped down slightly below a huge support level. My bearishness towards the miners comes partly from this chart showing their correlation with the Japanese yen. With the yen pointing so decisively lower, there is a decent chance the miners will move lower, too. 

I'm so surprised at the number of people on CNBC who suggest buying gold. Really? Gold often does best when silver is leading it higher. There is nothing here in this chart of silver to suggest strength other than a very oversold bounce up to the 50-day. 

The price of oil is the heart of the inflation that drove yields up and stock prices down this year. We've had the first break of the oil uptrend, and so far the break is holding. Now we wait for the next signal which would be a breakdown of prices below the June low.

When that happens, we can probably say that oil prices have peaked. And why do we care? Because if oil has peaked then it means that yields have probably peaked, which means we are that much closer to the end of this bear market.

Here is a look at Treasury yields. As you can see, the trends have been wobbly for a few weeks, and the 5-year and 10-year are below their 50-day averages. In other words, the trends are under pressure.

There was a lot of talk on Friday about how weak the semiconductors were, and the chart is not looking good. This is a serious-looking breakdown.

Bottom line: I did very poorly in the market on Tuesday, but I bounced back a bit in the remainder of the week. At the moment, I am less than 5% long stocks and 28% short via inverse ETFs. The focus of the shorts is Europe, gold miners, and semiconductors. 

I'm bruised from trying to profit from the most recent short-term uptrend signal and, I will probably refrain from trying to buy stocks for the sharp bear market rallies for a few months. The potential profits don't seem worth the risk right now.

Outlook Summary

• The short-term trend is up for stock prices as of June 24.
• The economy is at risk of recession as of March 2022.
• The medium-term trend is uncertain for treasury bond prices as of July 2.