CoT's Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 15, 2025.
10-year note: Currently net short 772.4k, down 68.2k.
The 10-year treasury yield edged up a basis point this week to 4.43 percent, but not before ticking 4.49 percent intraday in each of the three sessions through Thursday. On 1 July, these notes were yielding 4.21 percent.
In the right circumstances for bond bears (on price; yield and price have an inverse relationship), the 10-year would have had a shot at 4.7 percent, which is where a falling trendline from October 2023 when rates peaked at five percent lies.
But for now, odds favor yields are headed lower in the sessions to come. If this comes to pass, the 50- and 200-day lie at 4.41 percent and 4.36 percent respectively; bond bears are likely to try to defend these averages. Failure to do so will make the July low exposed.
30-year bond: Currently net short 130.1k, up 21.4k.
Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.
Existing home sales (June) are due out Wednesday. Sales in May rose 0.8 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units – a three-month high.
Thursday brings new home sales (June). In May, sales plunged 13.7 percent m/m to 623,000 units (SAAR) – a seven-month low.
Durable goods orders (June) are scheduled for Friday. May orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capex plans – increased 1.7 percent m/m to $75.9 billion, which was a four-month high. The series hit a record $78.1 billion in August 2022.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 141.9k, down 53.5k.
The week began with Monday’s unsuccessful attempt at reclaiming the 200-day ($68.32). Friday met with the same fate, with the session high of $68.61 comfortably above the average, but in the end West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $67.30/barrel, down 1.7 percent for the week. This was the first down week in three – and second in seven.
Even though oil bulls failed to conquer the 200-day, they should like the fact that they stepped up in defense of horizontal support at $65-$66 on Wednesday, just above the 50-day at $65.29. With the 50-day rising and the 200-day flattish, odds are decent that a golden cross will form in the sessions to come.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to July 11th decreased 10,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.375 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6th last year. Crude imports increased, up 366,000 b/d to 6.4 mb/d. Stocks of gasoline and distillates, too, respectively rose 3.4 million barrels and 4.2 million barrels to 232.9 million barrels and 107 million barrels; in the prior week, distillates hit the lowest since May 2003. Crude inventory went the other way, dropping 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization fell eight-tenths of a percentage point to 93.9 percent.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 167.8k, up 27.8k.
Yet another fresh intraday high of 6316 on Friday and yet another failure on the part of equity bulls to hold on to the gains, as the session ended flat at 6297. For the week, the S&P 500 still added 0.6 percent. The rather tentative action this week followed last week’s weekly doji.
Three weeks ago, the large cap index broke out of 6100s. Well before a breakout retest could occur, Wednesday’s weakness was bought at 6200, even as selling pressure has intensified in recent sessions around 6300.
So, in the near term, the S&P 500 is trapped between 6200 and 6300. A likely breach of 6200 would mean a breach of shorter-term averages, and this could open the way toward testing 6100s, and then the 50- and 200-day (respectively 6028 and 5871).
Euro: Currently net long 128.2k, up 7.6k.
Non-commercials keep adding to net longs, which are now the highest since December 2023. Yet, odds are growing that the cash will continue to come under pressure. If this scenario comes to pass, then these traders increasingly will be tempted to lock in gains.
Early this year, the euro bottomed around $1.02s. On 1 July, it ticked $1.183 and headed lower. This week, it gave back 0.6 percent to $1.1626. This was the second straight down week.
In April, the currency broke out of $1.12, where it had faced decent resistance last August and September. This was followed by a June breakout at $1.16, which is being tested currently. On Tuesday through Thursday, the euro traded sub $1.16 intraday but only to close above in all three sessions. The daily is oversold, so a rally of some sort is possible. But in due course, a test of $1.12 is the path of least resistance.
Gold: Currently net long 213.1k, up 10.1k.
Gold shed 0.2 percent this week to $3,349/ounce this week. Concurrently, daily Bollinger bands are tightening. This often precedes a sharp move – either up or down. The metal has essentially gone sideways since it posted a fresh all-time high of $3,500 on 22 April. Since then, $3,200 has repeatedly found buyers; this is a must-hold in the event downward pressure materializes in the sessions ahead.
Gold has had a phenomenal rally since bottoming at $1,810 in October 2023. Since then, there have only been four down months, with the current month up 1.4 percent thus far. Amidst this, a monthly spinning top formed in both May and June. A fatigue could very well be setting in.
This, however, is not the scenario currently anticipated by non-commercials, who are currently most net long in 15 weeks.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 34.9k, up 3.7k.
The next couple of weeks is heavy with tech earnings. Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) report their June quarter next Wednesday. Other heavy hitters such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Facebook parent Meta (META) report on the 30th, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are due out on the 31st. Nvidia (NVDA) does not report until August 27th as it is on a July quarter.
Ahead of this, the Nasdaq 100 continues to trudge higher, adding 1.3 percent this week to 23065, with a fresh intraday high of 23153 on Friday. Despite tech bulls’ inability to cling on to this high, the index did manage to break out of short-term resistance at 22900s. Earlier, it broke out of 22100s four weeks ago. Both these levels are worth a watch.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 72.6k, up 5.5k.
Small-cap bulls have done a great job of rallying the Russell 2000 from an intraday low of 1733 on 9 April but seem to have run out of fuel just under 2300. Last week, they managed 2276, and this week 2270, before losing steam. For the week, the index rose 0.2 percent to 2240.
This week’s spinning top candle on the weekly follows last week’s long-legged doji. These candles have appeared after a massive three-plus-month rally along a rising trendline from April’s low. The index is clinging on to that support, a likely breach of which results in a test eventually of major support at 2100.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 3.7k, down 321.
The US dollar index declined from 100.18 in January this year to 96.38 on 1 July. That low, after six months of persistent decline, occurred in a dragonfly doji week, and was essentially a successful defense of a rising trendline from the lows of April and May of 2011.
After bottoming early this month, the index has rallied for two successive weeks, including this week’s rise of 0.6 percent to 98.46 with an intraday high of 98.95 on Thursday. The 50-day (98.73) is resisting rally attempts, even as the daily looks to be wanting to go lower. Support at 98 is vulnerable in the sessions ahead, but dollar bulls in no circumstances can afford to lose 97, or the July 1st low.
VIX: Currently net short 44.5k, up 5.3k.
Volatility is flat as a pancake the last four weeks, and it remains relatively elevated. This week, VIX inched up 0.1 percent to 16.41. It is rare for both VIX and the S&P 500 to go hand in hand. In the prior three weeks, the volatility index respectively closed at 16.40, 16.38 and 16.32.
On 7 April, VIX spiked to 60.13 before reversing lower. The S&P 500 bottomed in that very session, hitting one after another high in subsequent weeks. Amidst this, VIX the last four weeks has held its ground. Volatility bears were probably hoping that VIX would at least trade with a 14 handle by now. In January and February this year, it traded in 14.50s-14.70s for several sessions before turning higher. This has not happened this time around.
Thanks for reading!
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