CoT: Peek Into Future Thru Futures - How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 8, 2025.
10-year note: Currently net short 840.6k, up 56.9k.
Once again, non-commercials are adding to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, with this week adding 7.3 percent to a seven-week high. They began adding after reaching a 22-week low of 680,131 contracts in the week to June 24th. Since then, holdings have gone up by 160,448, betting on higher yields. Timing could not be more perfect.
On July 1, the 10-year yield bottomed at 4.21 percent. This week, it closed at 4.42 percent, reclaiming the 50-day moving average at 4.39 percent; the 200-day (4.34 percent) was recaptured six sessions ago.
The daily is beginning to get extended, but in the right circumstances for bond bears (bond price and yield have an inverse relationship), the 10-year has a shot at 4.7 percent, which is where a falling trendline from October 2023 when rates peaked at five percent lies.
30-year bond: Currently net short 108.8k, up 4.3k.
Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.
The consumer price index (June) is due out Tuesday. In the 12 months to May, headline and core consumer prices rose 2.35 percent and 2.79 percent respectively. April’s 2.31 percent and 2.78 percent were the lowest since February and March of 2021, in that order.
Wednesday brings the producer price index (June) and industrial production (June).
Headline and core wholesale prices in May rose 2.6 percent and 2.7 percent respectively from a year ago.
Capacity utilization in May fell 0.4 percent month-over-month to 77.4 percent – a four-month low.
Retail sales (June) and the NAHB housing market index (July) are scheduled for Thursday.
May retail sales decreased 0.9 percent m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $715.4 billion. The series recorded an all-time high of $722.6 billion in March.
In June, homebuilder optimism dropped two points m/m to 32 – a 29-month low.
On Friday, housing starts (June) and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (July, preliminary) are on tap.
Starts tumbled 9.8 percent m/m in May to 1.26 million units (SAAR) – a five-year low.
Consumer sentiment shot up 8.5 points m/m in June to 60.7 – a four-month high. The 52.2-point reading in April and May was the lowest since July 2022.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 195.3k, down 36.4k.
Just when it looked like oil bears are eyeing horizontal support at $55, which goes back a couple of decades, bulls stepped up in defense of horizontal support at $65-$66. After struggling at the 200-day ($68.38) in the first three sessions, West Texas Intermediate crude gapped down Thursday and the bleeding stopped at $65.46, with Friday rallying past the average to go up 2.9 percent for the week to $68.75/barrel.
This week’s was the second consecutive up week – and fifth in six. Odds favor the positive momentum continues in the sessions ahead.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to July 4th decreased 48,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.385 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6th last year. Crude imports declined as well, down 906,000 b/d to six mb/d; imports fell from a six-month high. Stocks of gasoline and distillates, too, respectively dropped 2.7 million barrels and 825,000 barrels to 229.5 million barrels and 102.8 million barrels, with distillates the lowest since May 2003. Refinery utilization fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 94.7 percent; utilization fell from a one-year high.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 140k, up 53.2k.
Ten sessions ago, the S&P 500 surpassed the prior high of 6147 posted on 19 February, before rallying to 6285 on the 3rd and 6290 on the 10th. For the week, it shed 0.3 percent to 6260, forming a weekly doji, which showed up a couple of weeks after the large cap index broke out of 6100s.
The weekly candle could be a sign the S&P 500 is simply tired; after tumbling 21.3 percent between the February high and the low on 7 April (4835), the index has rallied feverishly. Alternatively, it is just resting before building on that breakout. Indeed, it has gone sideways the last six sessions. A break out of 6280s – or 6290s – can further add to the recent momentum. Should things not evolve this way, bulls will still have an opportunity to defend 6120s-6140s, or 6050s below that.
Euro: Currently net long 120.6k, up 13.1k.
After rallying for five successive months, July is starting out poorly – down 0.8 percent. This week, the euro fell by exactly that amount to $1.169, with last week’s high of $1.183 the highest since September 2021.
The currency has come a long way since early this year when it bottomed around $1.02s; earlier, it faced difficulty breaking through $1.12 last August and September, which it broke out of this April. This was followed by a breakout at $1.16, which should constitute an important breakout retest in the sessions ahead. After that lies the 50-day at $1.147.
Gold: Currently net long 203k, up 988.
On June 30, with an intraday low of $3,223, gold came very close to testing horizontal support at $3,200. Gold bugs used that as an opportunity. This week, the metal rallied 0.9 percent to $3,355/ounce.
Since posting a fresh all-time high of $3,500 on 22 April, $3,200 has repeatedly found buyers. This is encouraging for the bulls. Yet, even during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the yellow metal failed to surpass that high. This is a negative.
Gold has had a phenomenal run since bottoming at $1,810 in October 2023. Since then, there have only been four down months, with the current month up 1.6 percent thus far. Amidst this, a monthly spinning top formed in both May and June. This is worth watching. A fatigue could be setting in; $3,200 is a must-hold.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 31.2k, up 4.1k.
Ahead of 2Q earnings, the Nasdaq 100 has essentially gone sideways the last six sessions, with a possible breakout at 22900s. This week – a doji week – the tech-heavy index inched lower 0.2 percent to 22781, with Wednesday registering a fresh record of 22915. This follows a breakout at 22100s three weeks ago.
Earlier on February 19, the Nasdaq 100 ticked 22223 and headed lower, bottoming at 16542 by April 7. It has been quite a rally since, although it has not come without a divergence. From the start of this month, the daily RSI has made lower highs, even as the Nasdaq 100 rallies higher. Be that as it may, a breakout at 22900s will add to momentum, no matter how narrow.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 67.1k, up 8.7k.
Major horizontal resistance at 2300 seems to be holding. Small-cap bulls could not even muster enough strength to genuinely go after that hurdle, as the Russell 2000 retreated after tagging 2276 on Thursday. It closed the week down 0.6 percent to 2235.
Last November, the Russell 2000 posted a new all-time high of 2466, just edging past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021. It subsequently bottomed at 1733 on 9 April. The rally that followed has come all along a rising trendline from that low. This week, a weekly long-legged doji appeared right on that support, a breach of which likely results in a test eventually of major support at 2100.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 4k, down 296.
Last week, after six months of persistent decline, a dragonfly doji formed on the weekly, with an intraday low of 96.38 on July 1. This week, the US dollar index rallied 0.7 percent to 97.87.
This probably means dollar bulls have managed to defend a rising trendline from the lows of April and May of 2011, boding well for more gains to come in the days and weeks to come.
Immediately ahead, there is resistance at 98. After that lies the 50-day at 98.88.
VIX: Currently net short 39.2k, up 3.9k.
Despite the S&P 500 rallying to new highs, VIX is hanging tough, with this week closing at 16.40 and at 16.38 and 16.32 before that. Volatility bears were probably hoping that VIX would at least trade with a 14 handle by now. That has not been the case.
In January and February this year, the volatility index traded in 14.50s-14.70s for several sessions before turning higher. Those lows are yet to be tested.
Thanks for reading!
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