CoT: Noncommercial Positions And The Future Through Futures
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 10, 2025.
10-year note: Currently net short 724.1k, up 18.8k.
The FOMC meets next week. This is the fourth scheduled meeting this year, and four more remain. During the May 6-7 meeting, the fed funds rate was left steady at a range of 425 basis points to 450 basis points.
Next week’s meeting will also include the quarterly statement. During the March 18-19 meeting, the growth rate forecast in real GDP for this year was cut from 2.1 percent in December to 1.7 percent while raising core inflation forecast from 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent; at the post-meeting presser, Chair Jerome Powell said the forecasts are “highly uncertain.” Uncertainty has gone up even more since.
As if the tariff uncertainty was not enough, we now have Middle East tensions, with Israel and Iran going at each other’s throat and crude oil surging. In this environment, it is awfully difficult to come up with any credible forecast, let alone involving inflation and the economy. Markets likely will treat these forecasts with a yawn. They would be more interested in the outlook for rates in the months and quarters ahead, and the Federal Reserve has a tough job coming up with a plausible scenario, given they are caught between a rock and a hard place – signs of incipient weakness in the job market with potentially upward pressure on inflation thanks to tariffs and rising oil prices.
30-year bond: Currently net short 79.7k, down 22.6k.
Major US economic releases for next week are as follows. Markets are closed Thursday for observance of the Juneteenth holiday.
Tuesday brings retail sales (May), industrial production (May) and the NAHB housing market index (June).
April retail sales edged up 0.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $724.1 billion – a record.
Capacity utilization edged down 0.1 percent m/m in April to 77.7 percent – a three-month low.
Homebuilder optimism tumbled six points m/m in May to 34, matching the low from November 2023.
Housing starts (May) will be out Wednesday. Starts increased 1.6 percent m/m in April to 1.36 million units (SAAR) – a two-month high.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 222.6k, up 21.6k.
West Texas Intermediate crude shot up 13.3 percent this week to $73.18/barrel as Israel and Iran exchanged fire. Heading into this week’s surge, the crude went sideways for several weeks around $65-$66 after bottoming at an intraday low of $56.06 on 9 April. Horizontal support at $55 goes back a couple of decades.
Friday’s 7.6-percent jump helped oil bulls reclaim the 200-day ($68.58) as well; this was the first time in nearly five months WTI closed above the average. The 50-day was recaptured last week. Bulls’ next hurdle lies just north of $75, wherein lies trendline resistance from September 2023 when the crude peaked at $92.48.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to June 6th increased 20,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.428 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6th last year. Crude imports decreased, down 170,000 b/d to 6.2 mb/d. As did crude inventory, which declined 3.6 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels. Stocks of gasoline and distillates went the other way – up respectively 1.5 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels and 108.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose nine-tenths of a percentage point to 94.3 percent.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 127.7k, up 58.3k.
Equity bulls came close but could not quite pull it off. At Wednesday’s intraday high of 6059, the S&P 500 was merely 1.5 percent from the February 19th all-time high of 6147. At one time, it increasingly looked like the recent positive momentum was strong enough to enable at least a test of that high. Then came Israel’s military strike against Iran, and stocks puked on Friday, with the large cap index shedding 1.1 percent in that session, losing 0.4 percent for the week to 5977.
A lower high is now in place, with the weekly RSI making lower highs for months even as the S&P 500 trudged higher. Unless bulls recover quickly from this week’s action – unlikely in the near term given the heightened Middle East tensions – the path of least resistance is toward the 200-day at 5807, and then the 50-day at 5668.
Euro: Currently net long 93k, up 10.3k.
The dollar’s loss was the euro’s gain. The latter jumped 1.4 percent this week to $1.1554, with Thursday touching $1.1631, which was the highest print since October 2021. Resistance at $1.16 goes back a couple of decades, so it is unlikely it yields easily.
The euro has also come a long way since early this year when it bottomed around $1.02s; earlier, it faced difficulty breaking through $1.12 last August and September, which it broke out of this April. In due course, a breakout retest is just a matter of time.
Gold: Currently net long 187.5k, down 424.
Gold rallied in all five sessions this week, with the icing on the cake coming on Friday’s 1.4 percent jump amid Middle East tensions. For the week, it added 3.6 percent to $3,432/ounce.
With this, the metal also managed to push through trendline resistance emanating from 22 April when a fresh all-time high of $3,500 was posted, followed by a lower high of $3,439 on 6 May. On at least a few occasions over nearly two months, sellers showed up at $3,440s, including this Friday. Once this hurdle gets taken care of, which seems increasingly likely in the current geopolitical and trade uncertainty, a new high looks imminent.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 17.7k, up 3.1k.
At Wednesday’s intraday high (22042), the Nasdaq 100 was only 0.8 percent from its February 19th all-time high of 22223. Back then, it then plunged 25.6 percent to bottom at 16542 on 7 April. From that low through this week’s high, it surged 33.2 percent. Anytime there are gains of this magnitude in such a short period of time, the temptation to lock in gains rises, particularly when there is a sudden rise in geopolitical tensions. By Friday, the tech-heavy index closed at 21631, down 0.6 percent for the week.
This week’s rejection has come at a crucial spot. There is short-term horizontal support at 21400s. Once this gives way – likely – the 200- and 50-day (20477 and 20144 respectively) should act like a magnet in the near term.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 30.8k, up 18.8k.
Last week, closing at 2132, the Russell 2000 broke out of dual resistance at 2100, which has proven to be a significant level going back to January 2021. Most recently, the support was breached three months ago, in early March. Just above 2100 also lied trendline resistance from 25 November last year when a new all-time high of 2466 edged past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021.
This week, the small cap index is back at that support, down 1.5 percent to 2101, although it ticked 2170 intraday Wednesday. Bulls obviously were unable to hang on to those gains. At 2175 lies the 200-day, with the 50-day at 2005. In the sessions ahead, the index likely gravitates toward the 50-day.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 1.4k, up 785.
The US dollar index dropped from 110.18 on 13 January to 97.92 on 21 April, before rallying to 101.98 to find resistance at the 50-day by 12 May and coming under renewed pressure. Both Thursday and Friday this week, the April low was breached intraday with lows of 97.60 and 97.62 respectively, although it managed to finish the week at 98.18, down one percent for the week. On 13 January (this year), the index ticked 110.18 and headed lower.
Daily and weekly metrics are significantly oversold. At this point, the worst that could happen is a drop toward 97 and find support at a rising trendline from the lows of April and May 2011.
VIX: Currently net short 4.5k, up 1.1k.
It turns out last week’s slight breach of trendline support from July last year was false. This week, Wednesday’s spinning top low of 16.23 undercut last week’s low, but only to be followed by another spinning top on Thursday and a 15.5 percent hammer jump on Friday. For the week, VIX rallied 24.2 percent to 20.82. With this, it is now back above the 200-day (19.65). The 50-day lies above at 24.73; on 23 May, the volatility index tagged 25.53 intraday and was denied at that average. Volatility bulls must be hoping “the second time is a charm” idiom comes true.
Thanks for reading!
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