Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 3, 2025.

10-year note: Currently net short 705.3k, down 64.3k.

The 10-year treasury yield acts like it wants to go test trendline resistance from October 2023 when a 16-year high of five percent was hit. This was followed by a lower high of 4.81 percent on 14 January. This resistance will be tested at 4.7 percent. This week, rates added nine basis points to 4.51 percent.

In the meantime, non-commercials seem to be anticipating lower yields ahead. They remain heavily net short 10-year note futures, which is a bet on higher rates, but have been actively cutting back in recent weeks, with this week dropping to a 14-week low.

Should the 10-year manage to rally to test the resistance in question, this will probably be taken as an opportunity to go long these notes, betting on lower yields. Non-commercials continue to hold massive net shorts, and how they react at this juncture can be telling.

30-year bond: Currently net short 102.4k, up 48.5k.

Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.

The NFIB optimism index (May) will be out Tuesday. Small-business job openings decreased six points month-over-month in April to 36 – matching last September’s reading, which was the lowest since January 2021.

Wednesday brings the consumer price index (May). In the 12 months to April, headline and core inflation rose 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent respectively. This was the lowest since February and March of 2021, in that order.

The producer price index (May) is on schedule for Thursday. In April, headline and core wholesale prices grew 2.4 percent and 2.9 percent from a year ago respectively.

On Friday, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (June, preliminary) is on tap. May consumer sentiment was unchanged m/m at 52.2, which was the lowest since July 2022. In June that year, sentiment hit a record low 50.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 201k, up 17.3k.

West Texas Intermediate crude gapped up Monday to end the week up 6.6 percent to $64.77/barrel – just under crucial $65-$66, which was decisively breached nine weeks ago with a daily gap-down. Momentum is with the bulls currently, and a takeout of this resistance is likely in the sessions/weeks ahead.

This week’s action preceded weeks-long consolidation after bottoming at an intraday low of $56.06 on 9 April; since that low, there were four weekly spinning tops and a long-legged doji over eight weeks. Horizontal support at $55 goes back a couple of decades.

Once $65-$66 is reclaimed, the 200-day moving average lies at $68.73, with the 50-day ($62.55) recaptured this week. In the best of circumstance for the bulls, there is trendline resistance at $76 from September 2023 when the crude peaked at $92.48.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to May 30^th increased 7,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.408 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6^th last year. Crude imports decreased, down 5,000 b/d to 6.4 mb/d. As did crude inventory, which declined 4.3 million barrels to 436.1 million barrels. Stocks of gasoline and distillates went the other way – up respectively 5.2 million barrels and 4.2 million barrels to 228.3 million barrels and 107.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose 3.2 percentage points to 93.4 percent.

E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 69.4k, up 16.4k.

Going into the week, the S&P 500 for several sessions was stuck in sideways action, forming a wedge or symmetrical triangle (depending on how one draws). This week, the large cap index rallied 1.5 percent to 6000 to break out of the consolidation.

Earlier, the index tumbled 21.3 percent between 19 February when it reached a new intraday high of 6143 and 7 April when it bottomed at 4835. From that low through Friday’s intraday high of 6017, it then rallied 24.4 percent. From Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is now 2.5 percent from its record high. Momentum is with the bulls, and they are likely to go after this in the sessions to come.

Euro: Currently net long 82.8k, up 3.3k.

The European Central Bank this week lowered its benchmark rates to two percent. This was the eighth 25-basis-point cut in a year. In May, inflation in the 20-member bloc fell to 1.9 percent, lower than the central bank’s goal of two percent.

The euro rallied 0.4 percent this week to $1.1396, although euro bulls struggled to hang on to all of Thursday’s gains – the day the ECB decision was made – as the currency ticked $1.1458 intraday in that session.

On 21 April, the euro reversed lower after tagging $1.1573 intraday. The subsequent drop to $1.1066 by 12 May was bought at the 50-day ($1.126 now). Earlier, on 30 September last year, the euro reversed lower after facing rejection at $1.12 for six consecutive weeks. It stabilized early this year around $1.02s. Since that low, it has come a long way.

This week’s weekly shooting star is worth a watch, as fatigue could be setting in. For now, though, positive momentum is intact, with the bulls having defended a drop to $1.12s last week.

Gold: Currently net long 187.9k, up 13.7k.

Gold rallied 0.6 percent this week to $3,310/ounce, but bulls probably are not happy how the week turned out in the aggregate. On Thursday, the metal rallied as high as $3,404, which attracted sellers at the daily upper Bollinger band. If that high held, gold could have easily pushed through trendline resistance emanating from 22 April when a fresh all-time high of $3,500 was posted, followed by a lower high of $3,439 on 6 May. In the end, the weekly formed a shooting star this week, ending right on the trendline resistance.

Odds favor weakness ahead. The 50-day is at $3,256. The last time the yellow metal closed below the average was 7 January this year. In this scenario, lateral support at $3,160s holds importance.

Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 14.7k, down 2.4k.

With this week’s two percent rise, the Nasdaq 100 is now 2.1 percent from the February 19^th all-time high of 22223. Back then, it then plunged 25.6 percent to bottom at 16542 on 7 April. From that low through this week’s close of 21762, it has surged 31.6 percent.

For several weeks, tech bulls had difficulty piercing through short-term straight-line resistance at 21400s, and that got taken care of this week. Current momentum is strong enough they should find it easy to advance toward the February high.

Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 12k, up 7.6k.

On the back of May’s strong jobs report, showing gains of 139,000 non-farm jobs, Russell 2000 bulls finally were able to reclaim 2100, which has proven to be a significant level going back to January 2021. Most recently, the support was breached three months ago, in early March. Just above 2100 also lies trendline resistance from 25 November last year when a new all-time high of 2466 edged past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021.

This week, the small-cap index jumped 3.2 percent to 2132; if it failed to break out, it ran a risk of dropping out of a rising trendline from April’s low, when the Russell 2000 bottomed at 1733, down 29.7 percent last November’s high.

Bulls should be able to build on this week’s action in the sessions ahead.

US Dollar Index: Currently net long 617, up 703.

The US dollar index shed 0.1 percent this week to 99.19. This was the sixth week in the last nine the index closed sub-100.

Earlier, the index dropped from 110.18 on 13 January to 97.92 on 21 April. That low is a must-hold; a breach would open the door to a test of trendline support just north of 96 from May 2011.

That said, bids did show up this week after the index dropped to 98.35 on Thursday, helping the weekly form a potentially bullish hammer reversal.  

VIX: Currently net short 3.4k, down 2.4k.

Volatility bulls sought to reclaim the 200-day (19.61) on Monday as VIX ticked 20.45 intraday but only to reverse lower to finish the session in the red. In three of the next four sessions, the index closed lower. By the end of the week, it gave back 1.8 points to 16.77. This was the eighth weekly decline in the last nine. On 7 April, VIX spiked to 60.03 before running out of steam.

This week, trendline support from July last year was breached, although not massively. As things stand, VIX runs a risk of going sub-15 in the sessions to come.

Thanks for reading!

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