Weekly ETF Update - 03/07/26

Last week, I discussed how beaten-up ETFs seem like buys, and the two that I called out, iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and State Street SPDR S&P Software ETF (XSW) both rallied this week as the overall market slid.

A Look at the Market

I follow 84 ETFs very closely right now, and they cover stocks, bonds and precious metals and bitcoins. Their market caps range from $426 million to $866 billion. The average is $92.8 billion. In March, which is one week old now, the average ETF has returned -2.9%, with six up and 78 down. I am very pleased to say that the two ETFs that I discussed last week are the two that performed the best, but today I want to discuss #3, which is State Street Energy SPDR ETF (XLE). I want to discuss it relative to the two worst ETFs last week, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Silver Trust ETF (SLV), both of which are down more than 10% month-to-date but up more than 17% still year-to-date.

While I am a Texan, I am no energy expert. I have been favoring Energy stocks recently, though the big rally worries me. Why are the Energy stocks going up? The price of oil is going up! Why? The war in Iran. Oil futures closed at $90.90 yesterday, up 12.2%. For the week, the price rose 35.6%. Since year-end, oil futures have rallied 58.2%. Here is the chart over the past five year

I liked Energy stocks not because I had any bullish prediction on oil prices. The valuations seemed low to me, and I thought the stocks could work. In 2026, the 22 stocks in XLE are mainly up, with one stock down and the rest up from 15.9% to as much as 83.0%. XLE has returned 26.5%.

Could oil keep going up? Yes, it could, but I have no clue. I have low exposure to stocks in my model portfolio (see the section below), and I have no special exposure to Energy in the four equity ETFs that I hold. Looking at them alphabetically by ticker, PEY has just 3.8% Energy exposure. RSP holds all of the Energy stocks in SPY but at equal weight when it last rebalanced. The weighting is just 5%, which is slightly higher than the 3.5% in the S&P 500, which has big exposure to Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), both of which are up about 26% year-to-date. SMDV has no Energy, and VXF had just 4.1% at the end of January (their last update).

I have been negative on gold and silver, but they remain much more elevated than oil. Looking at GDX, GLD and SLV compared to XLE over the past year shows this:

Yes, XLE is up more than these precious metals ETFs in 2026, but it has returned far less over the past year or the past decade. XLE has now outpaced SPY over the past year by a lot (almost double on a total-return basis).

I don't think it is wise to chase energy stocks here, but they could keep rallying if energy prices continue to increase.

ETF Model Portfolio Update

This ETF, which is measured against 60% SPY and 40% AGG, is up considerably relative to its benchmark. This week, I did several trades, all of which are published on my Seeking Alpha blog.

Going into the week, my equity exposure totaled just 43.6%, spread out across four ETFs. Here is what I did this week:

• Tuesday: I exited XSW and added to VXF.

• Thursday: I reduced VTIP in two different trades. I added to IBIT and LTPZ in the first trade, and I increased VXF again in the second trade.

Here is the current model portfolio, which now has 49.7% equity exposure in 4 ETFs and fixed income exposure in 3 ETFs that totals 43.6%. There is also 6.5% invested in an a 8th ETF that is considered "Other":

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