View From The Hill: Nov. 14, 2015

I suppose I could begin today’s commentary with some reference to Friday the 13th, but that would be too cliché . So let’s look underneath the hood instead and try to determine what’s really going on.

Believe it or not, the economic data was not that terribly bad. Consumer Sentiment for November 2015 was quite strong at 93.1 vs consensus at 92.0 and previously at 90.0. Relatively low unemployment and higher stock market prices have given some buoyancy to American optimism. Of course, a serious meltdown in equities could squelch that in a matter of weeks, but so far this is not what we are experiencing.

Weighing against the bulls are the weak results indicated in today’s Producer Price Index report for October 2015. The monthly change was -0.4% vs consensus at  0.2% and annually it was -1.6% vs  the previous  -1.1%, which marks deterioration from the previous period. This could give the Fed a reason to pause and defer the anticipated rate hike in December.

Another reason to reconsider its hawkish tone on monetary policy is the strength of the US Dollar, which is doing a lot of preemptive work against inflation on behalf of Chairperson Yellen and her team of governors. Add more lame GDP reports from Europe, not to mention the stagnant growth in China and Japan, and you offset trade for U.S. multi-nationals. Oh, did I mention the dollar’s suppression of commodity prices as well?

One can see the deflated expectations for a rate hike as the inflation rate continues to fade from the Fed’s benchmark target of 2%. Yet, the market is confused and probably needs some reassurance from the Fed that it is sincerely committed to being flexible in its outlook and dependency on data. Good luck with that…

Performance Summary

 

Trends: ST = short-term; MT = Intermediate-term; LT = long-term

​Market Condition

Oh well… The beatings shall continue until morale improves is about the only thing positive I can say about this market. The S&P 500 took out another key support level, which was the triple bottom established in yesterday’s trading. Momentum is decelerating even more rapidly and the breadth of stocks trading with negative performance on surging volume overwhelmed any price increases i today’s trading.

 

 

• ↑ = positive momentum; ↓ = negative momentum; and ↔ = neutral momentum

​Volume Radar Alerts