Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 29K in September, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This print followed the 133K increase recorded in August (revised from 162K) and missed the market expectation of 90K by a wide margin.
Other details of the publication showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.2% in this period, while the Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 61.8% from 61.6%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, increased by 3% on a yearly basis, coming in below analysts' estimate of 3.2%.
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000," the BLS noted in its press release. "With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported."
Market reaction to US Nonfarm Payrolls data
The US Dollar (USD) Index turned south with the immediate reaction and was last seen falling 0.23% on the day at 101.80.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | -0.10% | -0.29% | -0.71% | -0.03% | -0.49% | -0.47% | -0.96% | |
EUR | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.60% | 0.03% | -0.36% | -0.35% | -0.86% | |
GBP | 0.29% | 0.20% | -0.39% | 0.23% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.66% | |
JPY | 0.71% | 0.60% | 0.39% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.20% | -0.29% | |
CAD | 0.03% | -0.03% | -0.23% | -0.64% | -0.47% | -0.45% | -0.92% | |
AUD | 0.49% | 0.36% | 0.18% | -0.18% | 0.47% | 0.01% | -0.47% | |
NZD | 0.47% | 0.35% | 0.17% | -0.20% | 0.45% | -0.01% | -0.48% | |
CHF | 0.96% | 0.86% | 0.66% | 0.29% | 0.92% | 0.47% | 0.48% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data at 08:30 GMT.
US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 90K in September, following August’s impressive 162K increase.
The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%.
US employment data could influence the market pricing of a potential Fed interest rate hike in October.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
With investors struggling to make up their minds about a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in October, the underlying details of the employment report could influence how markets assess the US central bank’s policy outlook and drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation.
What to expect from the Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 90K in September following August’s impressive 162K increase. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%, while the monthly wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), is projected to hold steady at 0.3%.
After the August employment data confirmed healthy labor market conditions, the Fed raised the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting, as expected. In its policy statement, the US central bank noted that job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Reiterating this sentiment, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explained that the jobless rate remained low, while openings and hours increased, adding that “the labor side of the Fed’s remit is in good shape.”
According to TD Securities, "September NFP likely moderated to 50k, with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.2%," following a strong August print. The bank attributes the slowdown largely to "a reversal in seasonal factors," noting that "private payrolls at 50k will likely be led by healthcare and leisure & hospitality," while "flat government will be weighed down by a reversal in local hiring." TD also expects "AHE was likely subdued at 0.1% m/m (3.0% y/y)," with the unemployment rate moving higher "along with participation." Overall, TD stresses that it would "look through dovishness in the report due to seasonal factors and rising participation," arguing that the softer headline numbers may be less meaningful for the broader policy outlook.
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