Trump Asks The Fed For An Emergency Rate Cut; What Are The Odds?

The odds are zero. But what about the rest of the year?

Where Is Powell?

Truth Social: Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Does Trump realize the Fed meets in 5 days?

There is no basis for a rate cut at all, let alone an emergency cut. Inflation readings are a mess, especially the PCE, and that’s the Fed’s preferred measure.

I see many reports that rates cuts are fully priced out for the year, but that’s not true.

For December, the weighed average projection is 3.45 percent. The current target is 3.50 to 3.75 percent (say 3.62).

3.45 would be a cut of 17 basis points, with 25 basis points being a quarter-point cut. So we are a bit under a full quarter-point cut priced in.

This may easily change on Friday. For the record, I do expect the December rate cut odds to drop a bit on the PCE inflation report and/or oil inflation concerns.

Might the Next Interest Rate Move by the Fed Be a Hike?

I suspect many people thought I lost my mind on January 20, 2026, when I asked Might the Next Interest Rate Move by the Fed Be a Hike?

Supporting the Stagflation View
The price of gold, silver, and copper at record highs
Medical insurance prices
Wars and threats of war by Trump
Deficit spending, which both parties want to increase
K-Shaped Economy fueled by upper-end spending
An AI speculation boom with no profits
Tax refunds will support more spending
Minimum wages hikes in 19 states will support more spending
Trade wars
Weak jobs
This is one sick economy led by AI, upper-end spending, and deficits.
I am not predicting a hike, but it would not surprise me much.
Contrarian View
A hike does not seem to be on anyone’s radar. So please consider Bob Farrell’s Rules of Investing.
Rule #9: When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
Who else is discussing a hike?