The DOJ Investigates the Price of Beef
Today, the Wall Street Journal reports the Justice Department Is Investigating Whether Beef Companies Engaged in Criminal Anticompetitive Conduct
The Justice Department’s antitrust division is investigating whether large meatpackers that supply American consumers engaged in criminal anticompetitive conduct, after President Trump called for a probe of the companies last year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump in November accused beef companies of manipulating prices for cattle they buy from ranchers and driving up prices for consumers. Criminal antitrust cases are typically reserved for allegations of price fixing, market collusion or competitors rigging their bids to customers.
In his call for an investigation, Trump blamed “majority foreign owned meatpackers.” A Justice Department spokeswoman declined to comment.
The probe follows a number of Trump administration initiatives aimed at tackling soaring beef prices, which have had little effect so far.
As part of the investigation, antitrust enforcers have looked into how beef companies buy cattle from ranchers through contracts that reference a pricing benchmark that some ranchers have complained is manipulated, one of the people said.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that the department was preparing to file a civil antitrust lawsuit against some of the country’s biggest egg producers over allegations that they coordinated pricing through an information service that benchmarks prices for the industry.
Trump Administration Cracks Down on Foreign-Owned Meat Packing Cartels
Trump’s beef over beef started on November 7, 2025. with this White House announcement: Trump Administration Cracks Down on Foreign-Owned Meat Packing Cartels
It’s time to protect AMERICAN CONSUMERS.
Here’s what you need to know:
For too long, a handful of giant meat packers have squeezed America’s cattle producers, shrunk herds, and jacked up prices at the grocery store. By examining whether these companies have violated antitrust laws through coordinated pricing or capacity restrictions, this investigation will root out any illegal collusion, restore fair competition, and protect our food security.
The “Big Four” meat packers — JBS (Brazil), Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef — currently dominate 85% of the U.S. beef processing market, up from just 36% in 1980. Two of these companies, including the largest meat packer in the world, are either foreign-owned or have significant foreign ownership and control.
Industry consolidation has crushed competition and hammered cattle producers. In the 1980s, the top four packers purchased one-third of all fed cattle; by the mid-1990s, that share exploded to over 80% and has only grown more concentrated since.
This has led to the exploitation of American consumers, farmers, and ranchers. In fact, mounting evidence shows this monopoly power has slashed payments to ranchers, reduced herd sizes, driven up consumer prices, and threatened America’s food supply chain.
President Trump will ALWAYS have the backs of our Great American Farmers.
Beef Herd Sizes
Beef herds in the U.S. have shrunk to 75-year lows, totaling 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, driven primarily by persistent, severe drought conditions in the Great Plains and West that forced widespread liquidation.
High input costs, such as for feed and hay, coupled with the long-term, multi-year nature of cattle ranching, have made it difficult for producers to rebuild herds.
Beef Herd Size Key Factors
Persistent Drought: Dry conditions from 2020 to 2025 damaged pastureland, causing water shortages and lack of forage, forcing producers to sell cattle rather than keep them.
High Input Costs & Inflation: The rising cost of feed, hay, and operating expenses makes maintaining herd sizes unprofitable, reducing the ability to expand.
Liquidation & Slow Rebuilding: Ranchers previously sold off breeding herds (cows and heifers) due to drought. Rebuilding is slow because retaining heifers to grow the herd limits immediate income, and it takes roughly 30 months for a retained heifer to produce a calf that contributes to population growth.
Cattle Cycle Trends: The industry is in the contraction phase of the cattle cycle, which began in 2014. High interest rates have also hindered investment in expansion.
The American Farm Bureau Federation says “While some producers are beginning to consider restocking, the low number of beef cows means herd sizes are not expected to expand until at least 2028”
So, let’s blame the meat packers, grocery stores, and foreign interests for high beef prices.
Elizabeth Warren on Price Gouging
Trump took a page out of Elizabeth Warren’s playbook. Please consider this May 22,2024 Elizabeth Warren Press Release.
Opening Statement
U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Policy: Lowering Food Prices: Combatting Consolidation and Price Gouging
Wednesday, May 22, 2024Warren: “(G)iant grocery stores and massive food conglomerates are ripping people off. And they can get away with it because there is not enough competition to keep them in check.”
This hearing will come to order.
The American people are angry about rising costs. And they are right to be angry – especially in the grocery aisle.
It’s infuriating to go to the store week after week and see that the pound of chicken breasts that cost $5 last week was marked up to $6 this week, or that loaf of bread that cost $2.99 last week now costs three and a half dollars.
It’s even more frustrating to open up a new box of cereal and think, ‘hm, I could have sworn there were a lot more Cheerios – and a lot less air – in this box the last time.’ Or to notice that a package of spaghetti that used to feed four or five people now only feeds three.
High grocery prices and shrinkflation hurt seniors on fixed incomes, college students struggling to get by, and working families across the country. That’s why we are holding today’s hearing.
Four big companies – Walmart, Costco, Kroger, and Ahold – the corporate behemoth behind Hannaford, Giant, FoodLion, and Stop & Shop – control over 70% of the grocery market in most major cities.
Meanwhile, conglomerates hit small farmers by charging sky-high prices for fertilizer and seed and by locking farmers into unfair contracts that limit their ability to make a living off their land.
The facts are clear: Massive corporate profits are a big reason why grocery prices have gone up and stayed up. But policymakers don’t have to stand by and watch. We can do something about it. We can rein in these massive food companies and grocery stores and protect competition to lower food prices. And new polling from Data for Progress shows that nearly 70% of Americans – Republicans and Democrats – support the U.S. government doing more to regulate grocery stores and corporate food producers that raise prices to pad profits.
The Biden Administration recognized that early on and has taken major steps to fight Big Food, greedflation, and help American families.
Congress can help the administration do even more.
Grocery Store Net Margins
Kroger’s bottom-line net profit margin is typically 1–2% of sales after all expenses (labor, rent, utilities, etc.).
This is standard for the grocery industry, which operates on high volume and low per-item profit. Recent quarters have shown around 1.4–1.8%.
It would behoove Warren and Trump to understand that simple fact.
Having more store brands in the name of increasing competition would reduce economies of scale and increase prices.
Trump’s Investigation Into Fertilizer
Truth Social: I am watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY during our FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran. The United States will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly! American Farmers, we have your back! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 11, 2026, 7:07 AM
Trump Administration Poised to Take on Fertilizer Giant
On April 14, 2026, FarmProgress reported Trump Administration Poised to Take on Fertilizer Giant.
The Trump administration appears ready to take on one of the world’s largest fertilizer manufacturers.
On April 13, during a meeting with the North American Agricultural Journalists association in Washington, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden called out fertilizer giant Mosaic for its April 8 decision to idle two plants in Brazil. Together, those facilities produce about 1 million metric tons of phosphate.
“What is one of the world’s largest producers of that commodity doing taking a million metric tons away from the world market?” Vaden asked. “What possible motivation other than further constricting supply, sowing uncertainty and already sufficient profit margins could they possibly have?”
Vaden’s remarks were the latest in a series of salvos the Trump administration has fired against large fertilizers companies. The Department of Justice is already pursuing an anti-trust case against major fertilizer producers, though few details of the case have been made public. This after DOJ and USDA signed a September memorandum of understanding to scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace.
U.S. Set to Use Tariff Funds to Address High Fertilizer Prices
Successful Farming reports U.S. Set to Use Tariff Funds to Address High Fertilizer Prices
Agri-Pulse’s Kim Chipman reported that “the Trump administration is poised to dip into tens of billions of dollars from tariffs and trade deal renegotiations to strengthen domestic fertilizer supplies, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told lawmakers.”
“‘We’ve got to invest in more infrastructure,’ Rollins said during a House Appropriations subcommittee budget hearing on Thursday. ‘We’ve got to reshore fertilizer back to America,’” Chipman reported. “Rollins said she hosted a 90-minute meeting on Wednesday with executives of four top fertilizer companies and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.”
FarmWeekNow’s Tammie Sloup reported that “Rollins projected fertilizer costs would go back down after the war ends, but the federal government is working with fertilizer companies in the meantime to help address cost challenges. She also pointed to the Trump administration’s 60-day waiver on enforcement of the Jones Act, which requires vessels transporting goods between U.S. ports to be U.S. built and owned, as well as allowing more Venezuelan fertilizer to be imported into the U.S.”
“She emphasized a handful of companies have ‘basically taken over the market in all of the inputs,’ resulting in a lack of competition,” Sloup reported.
Rollins added she’s on the phone daily with other fertilizer companies from around the country.”
“‘USDA has identified some funding to begin investing, to move some more fertilizer out more quickly. So we are on it, but I don’t want to over promise. These prices will not come down anytime in the next couple of days or weeks. It may take us a couple months to get them back down, but we’re working on it,’ she said,” according to Sloup’s reporting.
The Fertilizer-Strait Connection
Approximately one-third (roughly 30–34%) of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
As a critical chokepoint, this route carries significant amounts of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with nearly half of the world’s urea passing through the region. Disruptions here, often tied to regional conflict, cause major global fertilizer shortages and price spikes.
The Fertilizer-Canada Connection
Canada produces approximately 12% of the world’s total fertilizer supply. As a global leader, Canada is the top producer and exporter of potash, controlling over 40% of global reserves and exporting 95% of its produced potash, largely supplying the United States.
Potash Production: Canada is the number one producer of potash globally, with production increasing to over 30 million tonnes annually.
Global Impact: Canadian fertilizer supports half of the world’s food production through its supply of nitrogen and potassium.
Export Reliance: The Canadian industry exports to over 75 countries, representing a vital part of global agricultural input supplies.
Production Breakdown: The industry accounts for 12% of the global fertilizer supply, but produces roughly 45% of the world’s potash reserves and ~40% of global potash production.
Mish’s Proposed Action Plan for Trump
Invade Brazil to force it to produce fertilizer at prices we dictate
Invade Canada and takeover their potash production and hydroelectric power.
Invade Australia and Argentina and take over their beef herds.
Bust up the meat packers. The goal is to have hundreds of meat packers. Clearly, 500 meat packers would be more efficient than five.
Announce new bipartisan legislation written by Elizabeth Warren to address high prices
Increase tariffs on fertilizers so we can make them here. Model the plan on the proven success of aluminum tariffs.
Use the tariff money the Supreme Court says we have to refund and instead give it to farmers. Who needs the Supreme Court anyway?
Pay farmers subsidies to increase herd sizes. Pay for this item by eliminating food stamps.
Damn the Grand Canyon and fill it to the brim so we have free cheap water for our farmers.
Mish’s Radical Alternate Plan
Eliminate tariffs on fertilizer, aluminum, beef, etc.
Don’t start stupid wars. But if you accidentally do, then don’t set ridiculous terms to end the war that the other side can never accept.
Don’t invade meat packing plants looking for immigrants to deport. This forces up labor costs and end prices.
Don’t make stupid promises about lowering gasoline and energy prices by 50 percent.
Stop making threats on allies so they will again start coperating with us.
Work with Canada and Mexico to produce rare earth minerals that we need, eliminating dependence on China.
Take advantage of Canada’s cheep hydroelectric power advantage and import more Canadian aluminum.
Clearly my radical plan is just too radical for anyone to see the merits of it.
So, while everyone is focused on the War in Iran, I propose a sneak attack on Brazil, Canada, Argentina, and Australia starting tomorrow.
Trump should demand that NATO cooperate with us on the attack. Otherwise, what good is it?
A Radical Thought Experiment
Suppose Canada became the 51st state tomorrow. There would be no tariffs on aluminum, potash, oil imports, or anything else.
The lower 48 state aluminum refiners would immediately go out of business. All aluminum would be made in the USA in the new great state of Canada.
Similarly, all US potash production would be from the 51st state. And we would have no oil imports from Canada.
Our trade deficit with Canada would immediately go to zero. However, counting services our trade deficit with Canada is nearly zero already.
So, what exactly would we gain by making Canada the 51st state vs simply removing all tariffs on all Canadian goods?
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