Trouble May Form In The Market

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 4/8/26 at 6782.81.  

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Long GDX at 75.76; 9/29/25

It will be important for the current rally to continue higher to push the RSI 14 to +70 or higher. The reason is because of our previous commentary, which we said, “The top window is the 14 period RSI, Bottom window is the daily SPY.  Momentum in the market usually weakens before worthwhile highs forms.  Momentum can be measured by the 14 period RSI.  The SPY came off with strong momentum hitting an RSI (14) near +80 on May 14.  Trouble may form in the market on the next rally if the RSI (14) fails to get above +70. We noted in shaded pink the times when the RSI (14) failed to reach above +70.  On the next rally in the SPY, if the RSI (14) fails to reach above +70 will suggests a high in the market is forming”.

On June 10 both the 3 and 5 day TRIN reached near 1.20 or higher showing there was panic in the market and panic only forms near lows. The 10 day TRIN did not reach bullish levels but came in at 1.09 which leans bullish. Mid July seasonality wise is a weakness period and we will be watching this time zone closely.  

Above is the monthly GDX going back to mid 2006; bottom window is the monthly GDX/GLD ratio.  This ratio is has been in a sideways trading range since 2013 (13 years) and is due for a breakout and the breakout appears will be to the upside. We shaded in light blue where this ratio is now.  This ratio has been trading near 2.00 for near 9 months.  Notice that it has not back away from 2.00 even though GDX traded from 118 down to 75.  This condition is showing that the ratio has strength.  There is evidence that the next GDX rally has started and this rally will be reinforced if the ratio rally long with GDX.  Possible upside target for the GDX/GLD ratio will the near the 4.00 level which is the 2009 to 2011 highs.  If the ratio goes to the 4.00 range than GDX will over double from current levels and that is with out gold moving from current revels; but gold will move higher as GDX rallies and this condition will push GDX much higher than double.  Long GDX 9/29/25 at 75.76.     

My daughter is getting her doctorate from Johnson University in Nashville TN.  She is in her second year of a four year program. June 19 to June 24 the wife and I will be at Johnson University for her support as the University is putting on program for the doctorate students.  We will be staying in their dormitories on campus.  There is internet connections but don’t know how this setup will go.   June 22 and 23 (Monday and Tuesday) of that week; If everything goes well, I will have shorten reports as the school has activities for us and my time may be limited.