Trading Support and Resistance - Sunday, July 29

This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

• Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.

• Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.

• Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.

• Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.

Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Monthly Forecast July 2018

For the month of July, we forecast that the best trades would be long USD/JPY and long USD/SEK. The performance so far is as follows:

Weekly Forecast 29th July 2018

Last week, we make no forecasts, as there were no strong counter-trend movements.

This week, we again make no forecast, as there were again no strong counter-trend movements.

This week has been dominated by relative strength in the Canadian Dollar, and relative weakness in the Euro.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Previous Monthly Forecasts

You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:

Let’s see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:

USD/CHF

We had expected the level at 0.9907 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows the how the price returned to hit and reject this level just around the Tokyo open last Thursday. This is often a really good time of day to enter. The price immediately printed a bullish engulfing candlestick which broke upwards right away, which often signifies a good reversal is taking place. This trade has been very profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 6 to 1.