Thirty-Year Mortgage Treasury Spread

From FRED, a maturity-matched spread.

Source: Freddie Mac, Treasury via FRED. Data are weekly averages of daily rates. [added 30yr-10yr spread 10pm]

And here’s an update on real (ex ante) mortgage rates.

Figure 1: 15 year mortgage minus 15 year expected inflation (blue), 15 year mortgage minus 10 year SPF expected inflation (green +), 30 year mortgage minus 30 year expected inflation (red), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Fannie Mae via FRED, Cleveland Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

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